Behind the decision regarding massive strikes on Ukraine is a group of “hawks” including the head of Chechnya r.kadyrov, the newly appointed commander of the “special operation” s.surovykin and the head of PMC “Wagner” ye.prigozhin.
kadyrov and prigozhin represent the most radical wing of the “war party”, that is, that part of russian high-ranking officials and businessmen who favor further escalation in the war against Ukraine, as opposed to government officials who are determined to negotiate with the West because they want to preserve their assets.
prigozhin and kadyrov unofficially are supported by the former bodyguards of putin – Tula governor aleksey dyumin and former head of the Yaroslavl region, now assistant to the president of the russian federation dmitry mironov. After the announcement of the mobilization, the kadyrov-prigozhin group is trying to eliminate all those responsible for the mobilization, including Minister of Defense shoigu and putin’s potential successor, the secretary of the security council of the russian federation, patrushev.
With unprecedented criticism of military leaders – the commander of the russian central military district, colonel-general alexander lapin, the minister of defense sergei shoigu, the head of the general staff of the armed forces of the russian federation valery gerasimov – they convinced putin that his previous generals and entourage were not able to achieve an effective result. The latest appointment of surovikin to the post of commander of a group in Ukraine means that kadyrov and prigozhin have effectively seized control of the ministry of defense of the russian federation.
Why does putin allow such a situation to develop?
putin allows criticism of the military leadership because he is afraid of losing the military support of the Chechen fighters of kadyrov and the mercenaries of Wagner of prigozhin’s group.
At the same time, the russian dictator cannot openly oppose the military leadership, which controls most of the units fighting in Ukraine and conducts mobilization, and is forced to take their opinion into account. Due to the fear of losing power, putin is forced to involve kadyrov and prigozhin to eliminate the disagreeable shoigu and gerasimov.
putin is counting on the campaign of accusations against the top command, which began in russia, to hide the fact that he bears the greatest responsibility for the defeat of the russian army in eastern Ukraine.
In fact, the kadyrov-prigozhin tandem started the process of changing the political system of the russian federation. Struggle for power inside russia, purges in the russian ministry of defense after the explosion on the Crimean bridge will rock the boat of the russian government and weaken russia
Criticism of the highest military command of the russian federation is an indirect attack on putin and publicly undermines his leadership. After all, putin publicly expressed his trust in lapin and made operational military decisions in Ukraine.
Although kadyrov publicly demonstrates “love” for russian statehood and putin personally, such loyalty costs the russian budget 1 billion rubles a day. At the same time, with each of his statements, kadyrov emphasizes that he is not the head of a subject of the federation, but the head of an independent state that is in a personal union with putin and only this personal union connects him with russia.
How will the split in putin’s team affect the further course of this war?
Dissatisfaction of the russian political and military elites with kadyrov sooner or later will lead to an aggravation of the internal conflict and, as a result, to the collapse of the russian government. After all, despite kadyrov’s activity in social networks, he does not spend his troops in the war against Ukraine at all, the participation of his units is mostly limited to Tik-Tok filming of “heavy battles with bushes” and empty buildings, which is why the “kadyrovs” are hated by all the russian military. It is precisely because of the significant strengthening of the political and power influence in the country of the groups that control private armies that after the end of the war on the territory of Ukraine, a “war for power” will break out on the territory of russia. The closer kadyrov is to power, the closer russia is to collapse.
The enmity between prigozhin and shoigu is gaining momentum. prigozhin believes that the army fights in a non-modern way, and his PMC is a super-efficient and modern formation. shoigu and the generals think that the PMC is only getting in the way. kadyrov, after the start of the full-scale russian invasion, also often pointed out that Chechen units are fighting more effectively than the russian army as a whole, and are ready to “take Kyiv on putin’s order” even tomorrow.
The conflict is aggravated by the fact that, on the one hand, ordinary russian soldiers sincerely hate kadyrov and consider his appointment to leadership positions in the power vertical a real betrayal, and on the other hand, “kadyrovs” themselves consider russians to be strangers, with different traditions and religion. The efforts of this group to change the entire russian generalship and lead the war demoralize the army, provoke manifestations of disobedience and even partisanship. In this regard, it is quite likely that after putin’s defeat, all russian security forces will “pounce” on kadyrov, who will have to defend the independence of Ichkeria, as he calls the Chechen state, again.
Against this background, it is not surprising that more and more russians are beginning to question how long putin can stay in power and pursue the goals of his barbaric war.
