The reasons and consequences of the “quiet mobilization” in russia are being analyzed by #ССВ (Center for Countering Disinformation).
Since the beginning of the russian troops armed invasion into Ukraine, it has become obvious that achieving putin’s goals without additional mobilization is impossible.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, russia has already exhausted the reserves of combat-ready battalion-tactical groups and is trying to replenish “manpower” wherever possible.
However, to officially announce mass mobilization in russia is to actually admit that the initial plan of the “special operation” and the aggressive state policy pursued by the kremlin for the past 12 years have been defeated.
The military and political leadership of the russian federation decided to hide the general mobilization under the guise of hidden or “quiet mobilization”, which remains the only way to recruit troops for the war against Ukraine.
The “quiet mobilization” is a complex of mobilization measures to staff the army without an official announcement of mobilization, primarily through the creation of voluntary battalions from reservists and contract workers.
In order to create among the russian federation regions residents a sense of involvement in the events in Ukraine and to support the “special operation”, the formation of voluntary military units based on national identity is ongoing to increase the overall loyalty of the population to the kremlin regime.
Calls for contract military service became street propaganda part on the streets of many russian cities in the poorest regions of the country.
Following Chechnya, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Perm Krai, and Kirov Oblast have begun to form their own volunteer battalions to participate in hostilities in Ukraine through local military enlistment offices and mobile recruitment points for contract service.
The local government in the republics competes with each other in an attempt to earn as much favor as possible from putin and show their loyalty in supporting the so-called special operation, even if it means sacrificing the lives of their fellow citizens to preserve their own seats.
Loud names associated with national heroes, toponyms, or native languages are chosen for the battalions: “Vyatka”, “Parma”, “Alga”, “Timer”, and Shaimuratov’s Battalion.
The authorities promise soldiers “golden mountains” – from 200 to 350 thousand rubles per month at the expense of local budgets.
This income of “volunteers” is five to six times higher than the average salary of their compatriots in the regions.
Are the so-called volunteers able to significantly help putin’s “special operation”?
The experience of military action proves that sending so-called volunteers to Ukraine to participate in hostilities is ineffective for a number of reasons.
The kremlin’s initiative will allow for a small number of people to be involved in the combat operations, which will not change the situation on the front.
Lack of motivation other than financial in the “volunteer” units. The majority of residents of the national republics perceive the events in Ukraine as a “foreign war of russians against Ukrainians”.
The “volunteer” units lack motivation other than financial gain. Most residents of the national republics perceive the events in Ukraine as “foreign russia’s war against Ukrainians”.
The lack of combat experience and the russian Armed Forces losses during the powerful Armed Forces of Ukraine, the defense forces, territorial defense and the entire population of Ukraine resistance will have a negative impact on the moral and psychological state and discipline of the mobilized national minorities.
The involvement of “volunteer” battalions based on national identity in Ukraine will contribute to strengthening ethnic identity, which will inevitably lead to the growth of separatist sentiments in Russia itself.
Thus, the “volunteer” battalions formation for participation in the war against Ukraine allows the russian military to support themselves in the war to a certain extent, but it does not solve the fundamental problem of “manpower” shortage.
The regional battalions are expected to suffer significant losses in the war, which cannot be hidden and will ultimately worsen the kremlin position and activate national movements in russia
However, putin continues to consider the announcement of a general mobilization as a backup option for addressing the problem of replenishing the army’s personnel.
