Russia’s influence may weaken in Chad and Libya
Against the backdrop of the French troops’ withdrawal from Chad, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his readiness to develop cooperation with the African country, and Russian media spread information that two military bases in Chad will be transferred to Turkish control.
▫️ Africa is an object of Russian interests. However, a sustainable Russian presence in Chad could prove problematic. Similarly, Russia’s position may be weakened in Libya, Chad’s neighbor and Moscow’s main logistical alternative in the event of the loss of military bases in Syria.
Turkey and Russia supported opposing sides in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. Against this backdrop, Moscow’s reliance on General Khalifa Haftar in Libya may turn out to be as bad a decision as its reliance on Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
This would lead to the strengthening of Ankara’s influence in both countries, as well as to the further destruction of Russia’s architecture of influence in Africa. Most likely, it will be increasingly difficult for Russia to compete for influence in Africa in the face of economic difficulties caused by the invasion of Ukraine, as well as the expanding influence of other players on the continent.
