{"id":40804,"date":"2025-12-01T09:41:51","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T07:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/?p=40804"},"modified":"2025-12-01T11:01:58","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T09:01:58","slug":"the-centers-information-threat-forecast-for-beginning-of-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/international-threats-en\/europe\/the-centers-information-threat-forecast-for-beginning-of-december-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"The Center’s Information Threat Forecast For Beginning of December 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. Continued Disinformation Campaign Surrounding Negotiations to End the War<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the first half of December, the kremlin is expected to intensify its disinformation campaign around ongoing discussions on a diplomatic settlement of russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. russia\u2019s propaganda efforts will primarily focus on discrediting the negotiation process between Ukraine and the United States, attempting to advance the narrative that \u201cUkraine is sabotaging the talks because it does not want to end the war.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In parallel, russia will likely seek to undermine EU diplomacy by promoting claims that \u201cEurope is unwilling to end the war,\u201d and by attempting to push European partners out of the negotiation process.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, moscow will likely continue avoiding transparent communication regarding the U.S. peace proposals, creating an information vacuum that enables manipulation of public sentiment both within russia and in Western countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

A separate vector will involve information provocations \u2014 the dissemination through media of contradictory messages, alleged \u201cinsider leaks,\u201d and fabricated stories designed to discredit diplomatic efforts by Washington, Kyiv, and European states. Such operations aim to sow distrust in the negotiations, create an impression of disorder in U.S. and allied policy, and undermine their credibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Simultaneously, russia is expected to push narratives aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian society. Pro-russian platforms will promote messages about \u201cU.S. and European pressure on Kyiv,\u201d \u201cunfavorable conditions for Ukraine,\u201d and Ukraine\u2019s allegedly \u201cweak\u201d negotiating position. These narratives are intended to erode trust in Ukrainian authorities and shape a public perception of the supposed inevitability of russia\u2019s preferred scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Intensifying Fear-mongering Regarding the Situation on the Frontline<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center forecasts that russia will scale up information operations aimed at portraying the situation on the frontline as allegedly \u201ccatastrophic\u201d for Ukraine. kremlin propaganda will exaggerate the successes of russian forces and fabricate \u201cvictorious\u201d battlefield reports. This information pressure seeks to instill a sense of Ukraine\u2019s inevitable defeat and weaken societal resilience.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, russia is expected to activate information operations targeting Ukrainian audiences directly. This may include mass dissemination of AI-generated videos depicting a \u201ccollapse of defenses\u201d or \u201cpanic on the frontline,\u201d accompanied by increased activity of russia-controlled platforms disguised as Ukrainian sources. These channels may spread panic-inducing messages and calls for political decisions favorable to the kremlin.<\/span><\/p>\n

russia will likely push similar narratives toward Western audiences, promoting claims about the \u201ccritical condition of the Ukrainian military\u201d and the alleged \u201cfutility of continued support for Kyiv.\u201d This aims to shape public opinion in partner countries, particularly amid ongoing diplomatic developments.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Manipulations Concerning the State of Ukraine\u2019s Energy System<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the onset of winter, russia is expected to intensify information operations aimed at fueling fears about the state of Ukraine\u2019s energy system. The core narrative will be the shifting of responsibility for energy challenges onto the Ukrainian government and individual officials. russian media will attempt to portray the Ukrainian authorities as \u201cincompetent,\u201d reinforcing the claim that \u201cUkraine is unable to ensure energy stability.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Through this information noise, russia seeks to redirect public frustration over prolonged power outages toward Ukrainian leadership, diverting attention from the root cause \u2014 russia\u2019s targeted attacks on Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, information pressure on Europe may also increase. russian propaganda could renew narratives about the \u201charmfulness\u201d of Europe\u2019s refusal to use russian energy carriers, including the recurring claim that \u201cEurope will freeze without russian gas.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Disinformation Campaign Following russian Drone Intrusions into Moldova and Romania<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the intrusion of russian drones into the airspace of Romania and Moldova, russian propaganda launched a disinformation campaign aimed at shifting responsibility for these incidents onto Ukraine. The Center forecasts that this campaign will continue into December. Already, fake reports are circulating about an alleged Ukrainian drone crash on Romanian territory, and further provocations by russia within this narrative framework are likely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Through such actions, russia seeks to create the false impression that Ukrainian drones \u2014 not russian ones \u2014 are attacking European states. The objective is to discredit Ukraine and undermine trust among its partners. Similar tactics were used by russia after previous incidents involving strikes in Poland, where moscow spread fake information to fabricate the illusion of Ukrainian responsibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

New provocations involving russian drones or aircraft in NATO airspace cannot be ruled out, as well as other actions intended to intimidate populations in those countries and destabilize their domestic political environments.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Revival of Pro-russian Narratives About the Euromaidan<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center forecasts that in the first half of December, russian propaganda will intensify its efforts to discredit the events of the Revolution of Dignity, leveraging the anniversaries of key episodes \u2014 the March of Millions (1 December), the dismantling of the lenin monument (8 December), and the violent attempts to clear the Maidan (9\u201311 December). The kremlin traditionally uses these dates to reiterate its manipulative interpretations of the Revolution of Dignity and to amplify fabricated historical narratives.<\/span><\/p>\n

russian propaganda consistently exploits the Euromaidan events to promote the narrative of an alleged \u201cWestern-orchestrated coup.\u201d Ukrainian protests are portrayed as an \u201cartificial uprising,\u201d a \u201ccolor revolution\u201d engineered by the U.S. and EU to install a \u201ccontrolled regime\u201d in Kyiv. In this framing, the Maidan is depicted not as a civic response to state violence, corruption, and the rejection of European integration, but as the result of a supposed \u201cWestern intelligence conspiracy\u201d that allegedly \u201cfunded the protests,\u201d \u201cdirected opposition leaders,\u201d and \u201cinterfered in Ukraine\u2019s internal affairs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In parallel, the kremlin continues to amplify its long-standing narrative of a so-called \u201cfascist coup\u201d and \u201cradical takeover.\u201d russian media have systematically labelled Euromaidan protesters as \u201cnazis,\u201d \u201cfar-right radicals,\u201d and \u201cbanderites,\u201d while branding the post-Maidan government as an \u201cillegitimate Kyiv regime.\u201d This narrative complex includes fabricated claims about the \u201cban on the russian language at the Maidan,\u201d myths about a \u201ccivil war provoked by nationalists,\u201d and accusations that Maidan allegedly \u201ctriggered the loss of Crimea and Donbas.\u201d Through these narratives, the kremlin seeks to deny the agency of Ukrainian society and justify its own aggression as a \u201cresponse to a coup.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Use of the BRICS+ Counterterrorism Conference to Advance russia\u2019s Propaganda and Political Influence in the Global South<\/strong><\/p>\n

On 3\u20134 December, moscow will host the BRICS+ Counterterrorism Conference under the auspices of russia\u2019s foreign ministry, with announced participation from relevant government agencies, experts from the UN, CIS, SCO, CSTO, and scholars specializing in counterterrorism and anti-extremism. The Center forecasts that russia will use this event to promote narratives about its alleged \u201cspecial role\u201d in global security and to legitimize its own approaches to counterterrorism through international platforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Expected messaging includes calls for a \u201cjoint fight against Western disinformation,\u201d accusations that the U.S. and EU \u201cuse terrorist methods to pressure independent states,\u201d as well as claims about \u201clinks between Ukrainian structures and extremist groups.\u201d These communications will aim to build russia\u2019s international image as a state supposedly \u201ccombating terrorism,\u201d and to assemble a coalition of Global South countries willing to support kremlin-backed information initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, the kremlin may use the conference to promote its own \u201cred lines\u201d and justify repressive methods of information control by emphasizing threats from \u201cundesirable organizations\u201d or \u201cforeign influence.\u201d This strategy aims to legitimize the tightening of internal censorship in russia and to secure international support for moscow\u2019s information operations under the guise of counterterrorism.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. Continued Disinformation Campaign Surrounding Negotiations to End the War In the first half of December, the kremlin is expected to intensify its disinformation campaign around ongoing discussions on a diplomatic settlement of russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. russia\u2019s propaganda efforts will primarily focus on discrediting the negotiation process between Ukraine and the United States, attempting…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":40805,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}