{"id":40153,"date":"2025-11-17T10:07:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T08:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/?p=40153"},"modified":"2025-11-17T10:56:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T08:56:04","slug":"the-centers-information-threat-forecast-for-the-second-half-of-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/international-threats-en\/europe\/the-centers-information-threat-forecast-for-the-second-half-of-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"The Center’s Information Threat Forecast For the second half of november 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

1.Information Campaign Surrounding the NABU Investigation<\/strong><\/p>\n

The NABU investigation into possible corruption in Ukraine\u2019s energy sector is likely to be accompanied by intensified disinformation campaigns by russian propaganda aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian authorities and undermining international support for Ukraine. The core narrative will focus on persuading Western audiences that \u201cUkraine is not worth supporting.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

kremlin-affiliated propaganda outlets will disseminate distorted interpretations of Western media reports to create the false impression that even leading Western publications consider further support for Kyiv futile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another vector of the campaign will target Ukraine\u2019s domestic audience. russian propaganda will promote narratives about \u201cpervasive corruption\u201d in Ukraine, deliberately overlooking that the transparency of investigations and the response of Ukrainian institutions actually demonstrate the effectiveness of anti-corruption mechanisms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, russian propaganda will attempt to incite protests in Ukraine and link corruption narratives to power outages, claiming that \u201cenergy shortages are a result of embezzlement\u201d rather than russian missile strikes targeting Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Information Attacks Related to Power Outages<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amid rolling power outages in Ukraine caused by massive strikes on energy facilities, russian propaganda will intensify efforts to portray widespread social discontent allegedly directed exclusively at the Ukrainian government. The key objective is to persuade both domestic and international audiences that energy supply disruptions are the result of \u201cincompetence\u201d or deliberate actions by Kyiv, rather than targeted missile attacks by russia against critical infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the key tactics will be the dissemination of short TikTok-style videos featuring alleged \u201ceyewitness accounts\u201d \u2014 some of which may be generated with AI to imitate emotional public reactions. These videos will be amplified by mass-produced bot comments calling for immediate action, including protests against the government. Disinformation will also be promoted claiming that outages are caused by \u201cenergy exports abroad\u201d or preparations for \u201cupcoming tariff increases.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Overall, an intensified wave of social media content is expected, seeking to shift attention away from russia \u2014 the state whose strikes disabled Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure \u2014 and redirect it toward an alleged \u201cinternal enemy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Information Campaigns Ahead of the Anniversary of the Revolution of Dignity<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the lead-up to the anniversary of the Revolution of Dignity (November 2013), a large-scale russian propaganda campaign is expected, aimed at discrediting Ukrainian revolutions, their participants, and democratic processes in general. russian information outlets traditionally use these dates to amplify destructive narratives about a \u201ccoup d\u2019\u00e9tat,\u201d \u201cexternal governance,\u201d and the \u201cchaos allegedly caused by color revolutions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A wave of publications and talk shows is expected across central russian media, television, and major propaganda Telegram channels, portraying Ukrainian revolutions as a \u201ccatastrophe\u201d that allegedly resulted in the \u201ccollapse of statehood,\u201d \u201ceconomic destruction,\u201d and \u201closs of sovereignty.\u201d The messaging will emphasize claims that the Maidan was \u201corchestrated by the West\u201d and driven by an \u201celite conspiracy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A key propaganda technique will be contrasting a \u201cchaotic, rebellious Ukraine\u201d with a supposedly \u201cstable and peaceful russia.\u201d kremlin-affiliated outlets will present the russian authoritarian model as a \u201cguarantee of order,\u201d while depicting Ukraine\u2019s democratic system as a \u201cpath to destruction.\u201d This narrative will be used to justify the suppression of any civic activism inside russia by portraying the \u201cUkrainian scenario\u201d as a cautionary tale.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is likely that so-called experts and former Ukrainian politicians who fled to russia after the Revolution of Dignity will be mobilized. They will appear in talk shows, conferences, and roundtables, presenting themselves as \u201cvictims of Maidan.\u201d Their statements will be used to reinforce propaganda narratives about the \u201cartificial nature of the revolutions\u201d and the \u201cdestructive role of the West.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In parallel, an information operation tentatively labeled \u201cMaidan-3\u201d may be intensified \u2014 promoting narratives about an alleged \u201cnew coup being prepared\u201d in Ukraine. The propaganda effort will attempt to frame any internal discussion of social or political challenges as evidence of an impending \u201ccoup scenario.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Increased Use of AI-Generated Videos to Discredit Ukraine on TikTok and X<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently, the Center has recorded a surge in the use of videos created or altered with artificial intelligence by russian propaganda. A further escalation of this tactic is expected, targeting both Ukrainian and international audiences.<\/span><\/p>\n

By disseminating AI-generated fakes, russians will attempt to sow doubt, undermine confidence in state institutions and Ukrainian defenders, and distort perceptions of the situation in Ukraine among both domestic and international audiences. These materials will include fake short addresses, fabricated \u201cconfessions\u201d of prisoners, claims of \u201cinevitable defeat,\u201d and other hostile narratives. The videos will be amplified by mass bot-generated comments supporting the propaganda messages.<\/span><\/p>\n

This campaign will be hybrid in nature, combining AI-generated content with the coordinated use of bot networks, fake accounts, and synchronized publications across pro-russian media outlets.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Disinformation Campaigns Ahead of the Holodomor Remembrance Day<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahead of the Holodomor Remembrance Day, a traditional wave of disinformation and manipulative content from russian propaganda is expected. kremlin-controlled media, pseudo-historians, and affiliated analytical platforms will attempt to deny the Holodomor as an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, framing it instead as a \u201cshared tragedy of the peoples of the ussr\u201d or as a \u201cresult of drought and economic difficulties.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The primary objective of this campaign is to devalue the historical significance of the Holodomor, undermine its international recognition as a genocide against the Ukrainian people, and create the impression among global audiences that Ukraine\u2019s commemoration of the tragedy is merely a \u201cpolitical tool\u201d used against russia. To this end, russian \u201cexperts\u201d and historians known for their loyalty to the kremlin will be actively engaged. They will publish interviews and pseudo-academic articles and appear on talk shows claiming that the \u201cmass famine affected all regions of the ussr\u201d and \u201cwas not artificially created.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Overall, the information campaign will focus on justifying soviet totalitarianism, eroding the Ukrainian historical narrative, and undermining international support for recognizing the Holodomor as genocide.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Continued Information Campaign Aimed at Discrediting the Defense Forces of Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n

russian propaganda will continue filling the information space with false narratives about both the internal situation within Ukraine\u2019s Defense Forces and alleged \u201cwar crimes\u201d committed by the Ukrainian military. The purpose of these messages will be to discredit Ukraine\u2019s Defense Forces and exert emotional influence on Ukrainian and international audiences.<\/span><\/p>\n

An increase in the dissemination of fakes is expected, including claims about \u201cbarrier troops,\u201d the use of prohibited weapons, looting in frontline regions, and similar fabrications. Particular emphasis will be placed on accusations that \u201cUkrainian soldiers are using civilians as human shields.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Another expected line of disinformation includes fake reports alleging Ukrainian strikes against civilians in russia, while propaganda will simultaneously insist that russia \u201ctargets only military facilities.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Special attention will be given to narratives portraying Ukrainian soldiers as allegedly \u201cdoomed to defeat,\u201d \u201cincapable of resisting the russian army,\u201d acting under \u201ccriminal orders,\u201d or \u201csurrendering en masse.\u201d In parallel, the campaign to discredit Ukraine\u2019s mobilization efforts will intensify. Through these narratives, ru-propaganda will seek to instill a sense of hopelessness within Ukrainian society and provoke division between military personnel and civilians.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. Discrediting EU and US Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center forecasts continued attempts by russian propaganda to discredit the sanctions imposed by the EU and the United States. kremlin-controlled media will continue promoting narratives about the alleged \u201cillegitimacy\u201d and \u201cineffectiveness\u201d of the sanctions, emphasizing supposed negative impacts on the European economy, including the energy crisis and rising consumer prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Propaganda will also actively promote the idea that sanctions represent a form of \u201cWestern economic aggression\u201d that primarily harms their initiators, heightening social tensions and fueling doubts about the rationale for supporting Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Center expects this campaign to have a dual structure: external audiences will receive messages about the \u201ccounterproductiveness\u201d of sanctions and the \u201cfailure of pressure-based policies,\u201d while domestic audiences will be presented with narratives about the \u201cresilience of the russian economy\u201d and its \u201csuccessful resistance\u201d to Western policies. These efforts aim to weaken international solidarity and reduce support for Ukraine amid the ongoing war.<\/span><\/p>\n

8. Continuation of russia\u2019s Information Campaign Accusing Ukraine of Derailing the Peace Process<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the second half of November, an intensification of russia\u2019s information campaign is expected, aimed at spreading narratives that allegedly blame Ukraine for the disruption of peace initiatives. kremlin propaganda will systematically portray itself as a party ready for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, while framing Ukraine and the EU as the main obstacles to a cessation of hostilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

russian propaganda will exploit international platforms and statements by officials to accuse Ukraine of \u201crefusing negotiations\u201d and \u201cundermining initiatives,\u201d and will also demand that the United States exert pressure on Kyiv to end the war on russia\u2019s terms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Particular attention will be devoted to attempts to discredit any dialogue on security guarantees for Ukraine, framing such discussions as a \u201cWestern escalation tool.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The objective of this campaign is to shift responsibility for prolonging the war onto Ukraine, demoralize Ukrainian society, sow division among international partners, and create grounds for pressuring Ukraine into accepting unacceptable terms of a \u201cpeace settlement.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

9. False Claims About Alleged Preparations of Provocations and Terrorist Attacks by Ukrainian Intelligence Services<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center anticipates the continuation of a coordinated information campaign by russian intelligence services and propagandists, who will claim that Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies are allegedly jointly preparing sabotage operations and provocations in EU countries, as well as terrorist attacks against civilians in russia\u2019s rear areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Statements by russian officials, including representatives of the foreign intelligence service and the fsb, will be used to amplify these narratives, including labels such as \u201cKyiv\u2019s terrorist plans\u201d and \u201cforeign intelligence interference.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This campaign aims to justify further aggressive actions by russia, incite panic both among its own population and beyond russia, and discredit Ukraine and its partners on the international stage.<\/span><\/p>\n

Propaganda seeks to create the impression that Ukraine and Western countries are the initiators of escalation, which would serve as a pretext for potential repressive measures and further militarization.<\/span><\/p>\n

10. Ongoing Efforts to Incite Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment Across European Countries<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center forecasts a further intensification of russia\u2019s information operations aimed at shaping negative attitudes toward Ukraine among European citizens. kremlin propaganda will actively exploit narratives of \u201cfatigue with Ukraine\u201d and \u201cEurope\u2019s domestic problems taking priority.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Through media outlets, social networks, and pro-russian politicians, messages will be disseminated portraying \u201cUkrainian refugees draining public budgets\u201d and \u201cthe futility of supporting Kyiv,\u201d allegedly pushing Europe toward a confrontation with russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Particular focus will be placed on Poland, Germany, and Italy \u2014 countries where russia has traditionally been active in fostering social tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any domestic political conflicts, economic challenges, or incidents involving Ukrainians will be leveraged to fuel xenophobia and undermine Europe\u2019s unity in supporting Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

The goal of this campaign is to reduce public support for assisting Ukraine and to weaken sanction pressure on russia.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1.Information Campaign Surrounding the NABU Investigation The NABU investigation into possible corruption in Ukraine\u2019s energy sector is likely to be accompanied by intensified disinformation campaigns by russian propaganda aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian authorities and undermining international support for Ukraine. The core narrative will focus on persuading Western audiences that \u201cUkraine is not worth supporting.\u201d…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":40154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40153\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}