1. Intensification of Information Campaigns Regarding EU and US Sanctions<\/b><\/p>\n
In response to the adoption of new sanctions by the United States and the European Union, a large-scale information campaign by russian propaganda is expected, aimed at discrediting restrictive measures and creating the impression of their alleged ineffectiveness. kremlin spokespeople and pro-government media will circulate claims that the sanctions \u201cin no way affect\u201d russia\u2019s economy and only \u201charm Europeans and Americans themselves.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The primary emphasis will be on several key theses: that sanctions supposedly \u201cundermine the stability of the global economy,\u201d \u201ccause an energy crisis in Europe,\u201d and \u201care an act of economic war by the West against russia.\u201d russian information outlets are expected to promote narratives about the \u201ccounterproductivity\u201d of the restrictions and the \u201cfailure of pressure policies,\u201d in particular claiming that russia has \u201cadapted\u201d to sanctions and \u201cstrengthened economic sovereignty.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Propaganda will likely exploit the message of a \u201csanctions hysteria by the West,\u201d presenting it as proof of US and EU weakness and an attempt to \u201csabotage peace talks.\u201d Simultaneously, the narrative that the sanctions are \u201crevenge\u201d for moscow\u2019s refusal to yield on \u201cnational interests\u201d will be advanced. The information campaign will also include personal attacks on US and EU leadership, accusing them of \u201cviolating agreements,\u201d \u201cdisrupting diplomacy,\u201d and \u201cattempts to interfere in russia\u2019s internal affairs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Sanctions targeting rosneft and lukoil will be portrayed by russian propaganda as a \u201cblow to the global oil market\u201d and a \u201cthreat to the West\u2019s energy security,\u201d while also assuring that russia supposedly has sufficient resources to redirect exports to \u201cfriendly countries.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Overall, moscow\u2019s information response will be twofold: rhetoric aimed at external audiences will stress the \u201cillegitimacy and ineffectiveness\u201d of sanctions, while domestic messaging will emphasize \u201crussia\u2019s resilience,\u201d an \u201ceconomic breakthrough,\u201d and \u201canother victory over Western attempts to break the country.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n 2. Campaign to Intimidate the West with russia\u2019s Nuclear Weapons<\/b><\/p>\n After the collapse of summit preparations in Budapest, the kremlin moved to an overt campaign of escalation messages promoting the idea of russia\u2019s alleged \u201cunprecedented\u201d military advantage. This information campaign began with nuclear drills in russia and will continue over the coming weeks. russian propaganda is deploying maximum resources to cover the recent test launch of the intercontinental missile \u201cBurevestnik\u201d and the nuclear exercises.<\/span><\/p>\n The propaganda promotes the \u201cuniqueness\u201d and \u201cuncontested\u201d nature of this weapon, intended to create the image of an insurmountable threat to Western citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n In this way, russia seeks to impose on Western societies the idea that any escalation risks turning into a global catastrophe if the West continues weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The primary target audience of this campaign is citizens of Western countries. Messages about the \u201cinvulnerability of new russian weapons\u201d are meant to instill fear. the kremlin aims for people to demand that their governments reduce military support for Ukraine, ease sanctions pressure, or agree to political concessions to the kremlin.<\/span><\/p>\n 3. Campaign Around the Collapse of Negotiations Between russia and the US<\/b><\/p>\n The russian information machine is expected to continue a large-scale campaign to discredit the US and European partners following the collapse of preparations for the meeting between Donald Trump and putin in Budapest. The central thesis is that the West supposedly deliberately sabotages peace initiatives because it is \u201cnot interested in ending the war.\u201d This narrative aims to absolve russia of responsibility for the failure of diplomatic efforts and shift blame to Washington and Brussels.<\/span><\/p>\n russian propaganda will attempt to portray the positions of European leaders as the main obstacle to peace. In this way moscow seeks to impose the view that only russian terms constitute a \u201cpeace plan,\u201d while any Western initiatives are an attempt to \u201cprolong the war.\u201d At the same time, russian propaganda avoids mentioning the primary reason for the summit\u2019s collapse \u2014 the kremlin\u2019s unacceptable demands that conflict with the US position.<\/span><\/p>\n The goal of this information operation is to discredit the American initiative, fracture transatlantic unity, justify the continuation of the war and terrorist strikes against Ukraine under the guise of a \u201cforced reaction.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Part of this campaign was the visit of kirill dmitriev, head of the russian direct investment fund, to the US, which propaganda will attempt to present as a supposed continuation of \u201cconstructive dialogue\u201d between moscow and Washington. russian media portray this visit as a \u201cpeace mission\u201d and a \u201cdiplomatic breakthrough\u201d intended to demonstrate the kremlin\u2019s readiness to negotiate, although in reality dmitriev held no significant meetings and his trip effectively ended in failure.<\/span><\/p>\n russian propaganda nonetheless seeks to use the visit to create the illusion that the US supposedly \u201cacknowledges\u201d the need for direct dialogue with moscow. In this way the kremlin intends to hide diplomatic isolation, shift responsibility for the collapse of talks off itself, and advance the narrative that only russia stands \u201cfor peace,\u201d while the West \u201csabotages agreements.\u201d<\/span> 4. Discrediting the Meeting and Work of the Coalition of the Willing<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n The Center forecasts a continuation of the information campaign by russian propaganda outlets aimed at discrediting both the concept and outcomes of the Coalition of the Willing meeting held on 24 October. The main narrative is to portray the gathering as a \u201cmilitary club\u201d of Western states allegedly coordinating escalation, weapons deliveries, and preparations for offensive operations against russia.<\/span><\/p>\n This narrative aims to create an image of an \u201caggressive conspiracy\u201d in domestic and international information spaces, and to accuse Western and Ukrainian leaders of consciously seeking to \u201ccontinue the war at any cost.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n At the same time, propagandists will promote the thesis of the \u201ctheft\u201d of frozen russian assets. The purpose of these messages is to sow doubt about the legitimacy of sanctions and restrictions against russia. This information operation aims to weaken international support for Ukraine, undermine trust in Western allies, generate political pressure on partner governments, and create an additional source of tension within Ukraine that the kremlin can exploit for political and military maneuvers.<\/span><\/p>\n 5. Manipulations Around the Draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2026<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts that consideration of the draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2026 by the Verkhovna Rada will become another target for russian information operations aimed at destabilizing the domestic situation. The main focus of kremlin media will be spreading narratives about the threat of \u201cfinancial collapse\u201d to undermine trust in state institutions and to instill public fears that the state will be unable to provide pension payments, salaries, and social assistance.<\/span><\/p>\n Another direction of the disinformation campaign is comparing Ukrainian macroeconomic indicators with russian ones. Propagandists present selective figures without accounting for differences in economic structure, military expenditures, and the scale of external assistance. Such comparisons are used to create the impression that \u201crussia stands firmer\u201d than Ukraine and can continue the war for a long time. Hostile propaganda will attempt to convince Ukrainians that \u201cthe state is exhausted\u201d and \u201cWestern aid does not save.\u201d In this way the enemy seeks to provoke social tension and create pressure on the Ukrainian government.<\/span><\/p>\n 6. Disinformation Campaign Concerning the Heating Season and Ukraine\u2019s Winter Preparedness<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts an intensification in the first half of November of russian information campaigns around the heating season and Ukraine\u2019s winter preparedness. Propaganda will amplify narratives about alleged catastrophic consequences of numerous strikes on energy infrastructure, which supposedly will lead to widespread heating outages, an \u201cenergy collapse,\u201d \u201ccities freezing,\u201d and mass population outflow. russian media will emphasize the \u201cincompetence\u201d of Ukrainian authorities, spreading messages about \u201cinaction\u201d and alleged inability to protect citizens from the crisis effects of the cold season.<\/span><\/p>\n At the same time the enemy will create the illusion that heating problems are a systemic failure of the Ukrainian state rather than consequences of attacks on energy facilities. The aim of the campaign is to demoralize the population, undermine trust in the government and state institutions, and to create pressure on authorities and international partners demanding a humanitarian resolution of the conflict on terms \u201cfavorable to russia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n 7. Information Campaign Around the Sale of Gripen Aircraft<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts an intensification of russian information campaigns regarding the agreement to purchase over one hundred Swedish Gripen fighters for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Widespread dissemination of manipulative narratives is expected in both international and Ukrainian information spaces.<\/span><\/p>\n The main focus of russian media and proxy resources will be promoting messages about an alleged threat of uncontrolled escalation on the European continent after the transfer of the aircraft, as well as \u201cdirect risks for NATO countries.\u201d The spread of fakes about supposed dissatisfaction among European taxpayers with the Swedish government\u2019s decision, which \u201cforces ordinary EU citizens to finance the Ukrainian war,\u201d will be intensified.<\/span><\/p>\n A separate emphasis will be placed on discrediting Western military-technical assistance \u2014 the enemy will push messages that Ukraine is being sold old or ineffective equipment, that Ukraine is being used as a testing ground for weapons, and that the Western defense industry profits from wartime deliveries. The kremlin\u2019s bot network is expected to intensify information attacks aimed at undermining trust in Ukrainian government and military institutions\u2019 decisions on aviation security and modernization, stimulating domestic debate over the advisability of such purchases and stoking public concern.<\/span><\/p>\n The narrative alleging internal contradictions among partner countries that produce arms, potential \u201csplits\u201d within alliances, and the risk of losing international support will also be spread. Such actions are part of a russian disinformation campaign aimed at weakening political unity on aviation assistance to Ukraine, demoralizing Ukrainian society, and influencing international partners\u2019 decisions regarding the transfer of Gripen aircraft.<\/span><\/p>\n 8. Intensification of the Campaign About \u201cAtrocities by the AFU\u201d in Frontline Areas<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts an escalation of russian information campaigns aimed at discrediting the Armed Forces of Ukraine by spreading fakes and manipulative stories about alleged \u201catrocities\u201d by Ukrainian servicemembers in frontline areas. Propaganda outlets and proxy channels will prepare large-scale information injections about \u201cterrorism by the AFU,\u201d \u201ctorture of civilians,\u201d \u201cshootings of citizens,\u201d and \u201cblocking detachments,\u201d which will be actively replicated on social networks, messengers, and through controlled media.<\/span><\/p>\n The primary goal of the campaign is to undermine local populations\u2019 trust in the Ukrainian army and authorities, provoke division and fear in frontline communities, and use this information in international media with the intent of weakening support for Ukraine worldwide. kremlin propaganda seeks to construct an image of the AFU as a \u201ccriminal force\u201d capable of war crimes, thereby justifying russian aggression and demoralizing defenders and civilians.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 1. Intensification of Information Campaigns Regarding EU and US Sanctions In response to the adoption of new sanctions by the United States and the European Union, a large-scale information campaign by russian propaganda is expected, aimed at discrediting restrictive measures and creating the impression of their alleged ineffectiveness. kremlin spokespeople and pro-government media will circulate…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":39420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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