1. Information Campaign About Ukraine\u2019s Alleged \u201cUnpreparedness for Winter\u201d and Inability to Resist russia<\/b><\/p>\n
As the heating season approaches, the Center forecasts an intensification of the russian propaganda campaign tentatively titled \u201cunpreparedness for winter.\u201d Against the backdrop of strikes on Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure, kremlin media will fuel panic about an allegedly catastrophic situation with energy supply and heating. Propagandists will disseminate dramatic forecasts about an \u201cenergy collapse,\u201d \u201cfreezing cities,\u201d \u201chumanitarian catastrophe,\u201d and \u201cmass exodus of the population,\u201d as well as Ukraine\u2019s \u201cinability to respond to energy attacks.\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Particular emphasis will be placed on discrediting the Ukrainian authorities through accusations of \u201cincompetence,\u201d \u201ccorruption in the energy sector,\u201d and \u201cinability to protect citizens.\u201d Any technical problems or local disruptions will be presented as \u201cevidence of systemic state failure.\u201d At the same time, russian sources will try to create the impression that the \u201conly solution\u201d for Ukraine is capitulation and cessation of resistance in order to \u201csave people from the cold winter.\u201d The goal of the campaign is to demoralize the Ukrainian population, undermine trust in the government, and create pressure on international partners to pursue a \u201chumanitarian resolution of the conflict.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n russian propaganda will actively spread messages about Ukraine\u2019s alleged \u201cpowerlessness\u201d and \u201cinability\u201d to deliver a symmetrical or asymmetrical strike on Russian energy facilities in response to attacks on Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n The main tactic is manipulating statements by Ukrainian politicians.<\/span><\/p>\n In particular, it is expected that russian propaganda will manipulate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u2019s remarks about a \u201cblackout\u201d in moscow, presenting them as an unfulfilled threat to sow doubt among Ukrainian society and international partners about Ukraine\u2019s ability to respond.<\/span><\/p>\n 2. Discrediting the 20th EU Sanctions Package<\/b><\/p>\n In connection with the expected adoption of the 20th sanctions package by the European Union, the Center forecasts an intensification of several information campaigns aimed at discrediting both the package itself and the mechanism of transatlantic coordination.<\/b><\/p>\n russian propaganda resources are highly likely to spread narratives about the \u201cartificiality\u201d of new sanctions and claim that the West has allegedly \u201crun out of pressure tools.\u201d The main emphasis will be on the \u201croutine nature\u201d of sanction policy and the supposed lack of real consequences for the economy of the rf. the kremlin will use statistical manipulation and selective economic data to demonstrate \u201cstability\u201d in industrial production and \u201crecord export figures,\u201d presenting this as evidence of the failure of the sanctions strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n Attention is also expected to be focused on internal disagreements within the EU. Propagandists will emphasize the \u201cresistance of certain states,\u201d claiming that the sanction policy was allegedly imposed by Washington against the national interests of European countries. Fake reports about \u201csecret consultations\u201d or \u201cbehind-the-scenes pressure\u201d by the United States on European partners to accelerate the adoption of the package may appear in the media space. It is also possible that there will be fabrications about alleged \u201cinternal opposition\u201d among European business circles, which supposedly \u201cdemand an end to sanction escalation due to losses for companies.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n A separate block of propaganda will most likely focus on creating the illusion of a \u201creverse effect\u201d of sanctions. russian media will spread messages claiming that sanctions have allegedly \u201chit Europe harder than russia,\u201d and that their continuation constitutes \u201ceconomic suicide\u201d for the EU.<\/span><\/p>\n The overall goal of these campaigns is to weaken the unity of Western allies, undermine confidence in the effectiveness of sanction policy, and create grounds for internal discussions within EU countries about the \u201cneed to reconsider\u201d the sanction course.<\/span><\/p>\n 3. Manipulations Around the Situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and Promotion of the Narrative About \u201cUkrainian Nuclear Terrorism\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n The Center expects the continuation of the russian information campaign aimed at discrediting Ukraine through accusations of \u201cprovoking a nuclear catastrophe\u201d in the context of the power outage at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Propagandists will continue to promote the narrative that it is the Ukrainian side that \u201csystematically shells power lines,\u201d preventing repair works to restore the plant\u2019s external power supply.<\/b><\/p>\n At the same time, the kremlin will seek to conceal its own responsibility for the crisis \u2014 primarily the fact that it is the russian occupation forces who control the Zaporizhzhia NPP and block the possibility of full oversight by IAEA experts. Public statements will appear claiming that russia is allegedly \u201cthe only side preventing a catastrophe,\u201d while Ukraine will be portrayed as \u201cthe source of nuclear terror.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n In parallel, russia will likely expand the disinformation campaign about \u201cUkrainian nuclear terrorism\u201d beyond the Zaporizhzhia NPP. It is expected that messages about \u201cUkrainian drone attacks\u201d on russian nuclear power plants or spent fuel storage facilities will spread. Such incidents, even fabricated ones, will be used to create the image of Ukraine as a \u201cdangerous actor\u201d allegedly violating international nuclear safety norms. the kremlin will seek to fuel global fears by invoking the \u201cthreat of another Chernobyl\/Fukushima\u201d to amplify anti-war and pacifist sentiments.<\/span><\/p>\n 4. Intensification of \u201cAnti-War\u201d Rhetoric in European Countries<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts an increase in informational pressure on European societies through campaigns cloaked in slogans \u201cfor peace\u201d and \u201cagainst war with russia.\u201d In particular, the organization of \u201canti-war rallies\u201d is possible, aimed at creating public pressure on EU governments to reduce or stop military support for Ukraine. Under the rhetoric of \u201cdefending peace,\u201d arguments favorable to the kremlin are in fact being promoted.<\/b><\/p>\n Organizers or active participants in such actions are often pro-russian public figures, representatives of marginal political groups, or organizations linked to russian structures. russian state media systematically cover such events, presenting them as a \u201cmass movement of Europeans against aid to Ukraine\u201d and \u201cevidence of division in society.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The organization of new similar actions timed to important political events \u2014 an EU summit or the adoption of new sanctions or defense decisions \u2014 is possible. Such events may be coordinated through networks of activists affiliated with russian \u201canti-war movements\u201d or organizations operating under the guise of \u201cpeace advocates.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The primary goal of this campaign is to shake the internal unity of European states, sow doubt among citizens about the advisability of continuing support for Ukraine, and create an informational backdrop for pressure on political elites.<\/span><\/p>\n 5. Campaign to Discredit Transatlantic Defense Cooperation<\/b><\/p>\n Amid discussions about the possible supply of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, the Center predicts an intensified information campaign aimed at discrediting initiatives to provide weapons to Ukraine and undermining transatlantic military cooperation. russian and pro-russian sources will systematically spread narratives claiming that the delivery of Tomahawks would have an \u201cinsignificant\u201d or \u201cillusory\u201d impact on the course of the war.<\/b><\/p>\n At the same time, the storyline about \u201crisks of escalation\u201d and \u201cNATO being drawn into direct confrontation\u201d will be reinforced. kremlin officials and propagandists will emphasize that the supply of Tomahawks would enable strikes on targets inside russia, allegedly \u201ccrossing red lines,\u201d threatening security relations, and \u201cdestroying ties\u201d between moscow and Washington. This narrative will be accompanied by russian threats of \u201cretaliatory strikes.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The argument about limited U.S. weapon stockpiles is also expected to be actively used. russian and pro-kremlin sources will share figures about the remaining Tomahawk missiles in U.S. arsenals, emphasizing that their transfer to Ukraine would \u201cdeplete\u201d stockpiles, make the U.S. vulnerable, and allegedly weaken allied defense capacity. This line aims to create the impression that providing weapons to Ukraine is supposedly disadvantageous for the West.<\/span><\/p>\n 6. kremlin information campaign to discredit the EU decision on downing russian aircraft and drones in European airspace<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts that in the second half of October, following the recent European Parliament resolution on the creation of a \u201cdrone wall\u201d and the authorization to down russian aircraft and drones in European airspace, the kremlin will launch a large-scale information campaign opposing these measures. russian propaganda outlets are expected to promote narratives about the \u201caggressive policy of Europe,\u201d the \u201crelay of war,\u201d and the \u201cescalation of the conflict,\u201d aiming to intimidate the European audience.<\/b><\/p>\n russian propaganda will attempt to sow doubts within European societies regarding the necessity and legitimacy of downing aircraft or \u201cunidentified drones\u201d over infrastructure facilities, thereby undermining support for defensive measures and generating internal tension within the EU.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n The campaign aims to weaken Europe\u2019s political will and reduce military support for Ukraine in its war against russia.<\/span><\/p>\n 7. Hybrid influence operations ahead of parliamentary elections in the Netherlands<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts intensified russian hybrid operations and disinformation campaigns ahead of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands scheduled for 29 October. kremlin-controlled resources are expected to focus on supporting populist and Eurosceptic political forces opposing military assistance to Ukraine and advocating for the lifting of sanctions against russia. Propagandists are likely to disseminate narratives about the \u201ceconomic losses\u201d of the Netherlands due to its support for Ukraine, \u201csecurity threats\u201d linked to the presence of Ukrainian refugees, and the \u201closs of sovereignty\u201d allegedly caused by EU and NATO membership.<\/b><\/p>\n Widespread use of social media is anticipated to influence various voter groups, spread disinformation about pro-European candidates, and artificially amplify divisive topics within Dutch society. russian propaganda will attempt to exploit the country\u2019s socio-economic challenges, portraying them as consequences of a \u201cflawed foreign policy\u201d toward Ukraine. Special attention will be given to discrediting the incumbent government through messages about its alleged \u201csubmission to NATO interests\u201d and \u201cneglect of citizens\u2019 needs.\u201d The ultimate goal is to facilitate the success of political forces capable of altering the Netherlands\u2019 stance on supporting Ukraine and undermining EU unity. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 1. Information Campaign About Ukraine\u2019s Alleged \u201cUnpreparedness for Winter\u201d and Inability to Resist russia As the heating season approaches, the Center forecasts an intensification of the russian propaganda campaign tentatively titled \u201cunpreparedness for winter.\u201d Against the backdrop of strikes on Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure, kremlin media will fuel panic about an allegedly catastrophic situation with energy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":38892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38891\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}