1. Continuation of Discrediting Security Guarantees for Ukraine<\/b><\/p>\n
The Center predicts that russia will not ease its information attack on initiatives regarding international security guarantees for Ukraine. During the second half of September, kremlin propaganda will continue to push the idea of the \u201cfictitiousness\u201d of any Western security commitments to Kyiv. In particular, repeated statements are expected that without russia\u2019s participation, any agreements on guarantees are \u201cempty talk.\u201d Propagandists and russian officials will claim that discussing security guarantees without moscow is a \u201croad to nowhere,\u201d hinting at the need to include russia as a guarantor on terms favorable to the kremlin. This message aims to undermine trust in the \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d format of Western states and justify russia\u2019s ultimatums under the guise of concern for real security.<\/span><\/p>\n Another line of disinformation will involve manipulating examples of past promises to sow doubt about current ones. Narratives about \u201creduced support\u201d from the US and EU will be promoted. Any delays or difficulties in implementing bilateral security agreements (for example, in ratifying treaties or allocating aid) will be presented as proof of the West\u2019s unwillingness to truly defend Ukraine. Through russia-controlled media, messages suggesting that \u201cUkraine will be used and abandoned\u201d will be spread to undermine Ukrainian citizens\u2019 trust in allies and pressure the government into seeking compromises with russia.<\/span><\/p>\n 2. Discrediting the EU\u2019s 19th Sanctions Package and Coordination with the US<\/b><\/p>\n In the second half of September, preparations and implementation of the EU\u2019s 19th sanctions package against russia, coordinated closely with Washington, are expected. The Center predicts that russian propaganda will aim to discredit both the document itself and the unity between the US and EU on the sanctions issue. kremlin propagandists will heavily promote the narrative of \u201cEurope\u2019s fatigue with sanctions\u201d and claim that disagreements are growing among allies. Particular attention will be given to sensitive aspects of the 19th package, such as the possible inclusion of new russian banks or restrictions on third-country companies (China, India, etc.) for circumventing sanctions.<\/span><\/p>\n russia will present such decisions as proof that the US \u201cdictates\u201d terms to Europe, while some EU countries allegedly disagree and delay the package\u2019s adoption. In addition, russian media will traditionally emphasize the \u201cineffectiveness\u201d of all previous sanctions rounds, claiming that russia\u2019s economy has \u201cadapted and is growing\u201d despite sanctions. Data on economic difficulties in Europe \u2013 rising prices, the energy crisis \u2013 will be manipulated to support the narrative that sanctions harm the EU more than russia.<\/span><\/p>\n In the information space, messages will be actively promoted that new sanctions are \u201cuseless\u201d and only harm Europe while provoking conflict with important partners (e.g., China, which could face restrictions for cooperation with russia). The goal of this campaign is to sow doubt among the European public about the advisability of increasing sanctions pressure and to shake the resolve of Western elites in implementing the 19th package.<\/span><\/p>\n 3. Completion of the \u201cWest-2025\u201d Exercises in belarus and Border Tensions<\/b><\/p>\n The Center expects that after the active phase of the joint russian-belarusian \u201cWest-2025\u201d exercises (held from September 12 to 16) ends, russian propaganda will continue to exploit these maneuvers for information pressure. The kremlin will present the exercise results as a \u201csuccessful demonstration of the Union State\u2019s power,\u201d claiming that troops practiced hypothetical strikes on Ukraine and defense against NATO forces. Reports will continue to circulate about alleged NATO preparations for war against russia and the potential for a new offensive on Ukraine from belarus. These messages aim to justify russia\u2019s policies to its own population, reference a perceived threat, psychologically pressure Ukrainian society and command, and force the retention of significant forces in the northern direction.<\/span><\/p>\n Propaganda outlets will emphasize that the West allegedly \u201cfeared\u201d the exercises following russia\u2019s attack on Poland on September 10. As \u201cevidence,\u201d they may cite Poland\u2019s decision to temporarily close some border crossings during the maneuvers or increased border security by neighboring states, presenting it as a victory of russia\u2019s intimidation strategy. Simultaneously, the kremlin will continue to push the narrative of the \u201cexhaustion of Ukrainian Armed Forces resources,\u201d claiming that Ukraine is so depleted that any new northern front would lead to its military collapse. Claims of a possible renewed invasion from belarus, missile strikes, or a new wave of mobilization in Belarus will continue even after the exercises end \u2013 aiming to maintain an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. This information operation is designed to sustain tension in Ukraine\u2019s border regions and pressure the West by demonstrating russia\u2019s alleged constant readiness for escalation.<\/span><\/p>\n 4. Campaign Following the Murder of Charlie Kirk<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts that russian propaganda will actively use the murder of American political activist Charlie Kirk to create a narrative about an alleged \u201cUkrainian trace\u201d in the crime. The campaign\u2019s main line is expected to be built around claims that Kirk\u2019s death allegedly benefits Ukraine, as he repeatedly criticized Kyiv and condemned U.S. support for Ukraine. Propagandists will attempt to portray this crime as \u201crevenge by Ukrainians.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n It is also expected that comparisons of Kirk\u2019s murder with other attacks will be actively used. For example, media are already drawing parallels with the assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico; both are framed as \u201cattacks on those who oppose aid to Ukraine.\u201d In this way, russian propaganda will try to prove the existence of a \u201csystematic campaign of terror\u201d in which Kyiv plays a central role.<\/span><\/p>\n As part of the campaign, russian bot farms may also become more active, attempting to influence public opinion in the U.S. by promoting anti-Ukrainian narratives.<\/span><\/p>\n Ultimately, this campaign will have several objectives: to sow doubt in American society about Ukraine, intensify domestic political division in the U.S., portray Kyiv as a \u201cdangerous\u201d and \u201cunreliable\u201d partner, and reinforce russia\u2019s image as a \u201cvictim of a global conspiracy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n 5. Manipulations During the UN General Assembly and International Day of Peace<\/b><\/p>\n On the eve of and during the high-level segment of the UN General Assembly, the Center predicts that russia will intensify its diplomatic and media campaign, pushing its own vision of \u201cpeaceful settlement.\u201d The kremlin will use the UN podium to accuse the West of \u201cunwillingness for peace.\u201d Propaganda will place particular emphasis on September 21, the International Day of Peace: russian outlets will promote the thesis that only moscow seeks peace, while Kyiv and its allies \u201ccontinue to escalate the conflict.\u201d Statements from russian officials will be filled with rhetoric about the \u201cneo-colonialism of the West\u201d and calls for a \u201cmultipolar world,\u201d aiming to gain support from Global South countries and divert attention from russia\u2019s aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n Humanitarian issues may also be manipulated: the kremlin will blame the West\u2019s sanctions policy for provoking a global food and energy crisis, promising to resolve these problems in exchange for concessions from Ukraine. All these actions aim to present russia as a \u201cpeaceful party,\u201d shift responsibility for the continuation of the war onto Ukraine and its partners, and pressure the international community to push Kyiv into negotiations.<\/span><\/p>\n 6. Propaganda Around the \u201cintervision-2025\u201d Contest in russia<\/b><\/p>\n On September 20 in moscow, on the eve of the Day of Peace, an international singing contest \u201cintervision-2025\u201d is scheduled, which the kremlin will attempt to exploit for propaganda purposes. The Center expects that the russian authorities will position the event as an alternative to Eurovision and as proof that the country is allegedly not isolated on the international stage. Propaganda will emphasize the wide geographic representation of participants: delegations from over 20 countries, including states from Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. In this way, the kremlin will create the image of \u201cglobal support\u201d for russia, highlighting even the participation of representatives from some Western countries to show that attempts to isolate russia have failed.<\/span><\/p>\n The coverage of the contest will aim to elevate russia\u2019s image as an influential center of world culture. Propaganda media will focus on the loudness and pomp of the show, the presence of foreign performers, and positive guest feedback \u2013 all presented as \u201cnormalization of relations\u201d with russia despite sanctions and war. At the same time, the Eurovision format will be discredited: kremlin outlets will talk about its \u201cpoliticization and russophobia,\u201d while \u201cintervision\u201d will be presented as a unifying event that is \u201cbeyond politics.\u201d The goal of this operation is to strengthen the internal audience\u2019s belief that russia has not lost global connections and to promote abroad the narrative that many countries are willing to cooperate with russia in cultural and humanitarian spheres.<\/span><\/p>\n 7. Manipulations Around the So-Called \u201cGovernor\u201d Elections in Sevastopol<\/b><\/p>\n The illegal elections of the so-called \u201cgovernor\u201d in occupied Sevastopol (September 12-14) will serve as a tool for russian propaganda to legitimize the occupation of Crimea. The kremlin will actively use this event to demonstrate the alleged \u201cnormal functioning\u201d of democratic processes in occupied territories and local support for the \u201crussian authorities.\u201d Particular emphasis will be placed on the implementation of electronic voting as an \u201cinnovative\u201d and \u201ctransparent\u201d mechanism.<\/span><\/p>\n kremlin-controlled media will spread stories about \u201cmass participation\u201d of residents in the electoral process and \u201chigh trust\u201d in the russian authorities. At the same time, a campaign is expected to discredit international organizations that recognize these \u201celections\u201d as illegal. Propaganda will attempt to portray any criticism as \u201cinterference in russia\u2019s internal affairs\u201d and \u201cdisregard for the will of Crimeans.\u201d This event will also be used to further reinforce the narrative of Crimea\u2019s \u201creunification\u201d with russia.<\/span><\/p>\n 8. Information Campaign Around Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic and Moldova<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts an intensification of the russian disinformation campaign around the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic (October 3-4) and Moldova (September 28), aimed at discrediting pro-European forces and increasing political instability. In Moldova, the kremlin will focus on promoting the narrative of \u201cstate capture by Western forces\u201d and supporting pro-russian candidates through the \u201cMatryoshka\u201d disinformation network. russian propaganda will attempt to create the impression of alleged \u201cfalsification of upcoming voting results\u201d and external interference, serving as an informational basis for further destabilization. Additionally, the kremlin will actively use conspiracy narratives \u2014 for example, about alleged \u201cWestern plans to drag Moldova into a war in Transnistria\u201d or \u201cturning the country into a military hub for Ukraine.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n In the Czech Republic, an increase in anti-Ukrainian propaganda is expected through pro-russian media platforms spreading fakes about corruption in Ukraine, the inefficiency of Western aid, and discrediting the Ukrainian authorities. The main goal is to worsen Czech society\u2019s attitude toward Ukraine and weaken support for its EU integration aspirations. Propaganda will also promote narratives portraying russia as a \u201cprotector and peacemaker\u201d in the conflict, further complicating public discourse during the electoral campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n 9. Continuation of the Campaign to Stir Anti-Ukrainian Sentiments in Poland<\/b><\/p>\n The Center predicts the intensification of the russian information campaign aimed at further stoking anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Polish society. In the second half of September, kremlin propagandists will increase their presence in the Polish-language information space \u2014 via anonymous Telegram channels, bot networks on social media, and websites \u2014 with the aim of sowing hostility between Poles and Ukrainians. Massive dissemination of fakes and manipulations is expected, including: accusations of Ukrainian refugees of criminality and extremism, scare stories about \u201cUkrainian sabotage\u201d in Poland to draw the country into the war, and slanders about \u201cexcessive social benefits\u201d for Ukrainians, allegedly burdening the Polish budget. Through such manipulations, the kremlin will attempt to generate fear, irritation, and resentment among Poles regarding the presence of Ukrainians.<\/span><\/p>\n In the information space, any statements or incidents that play into anti-Ukrainian rhetoric (from trade disputes to everyday conflicts involving refugees) will be highlighted. This comprehensive campaign aims to sow distrust between Ukrainians and Poles, undermine societal support for Ukraine in Poland, and complicate cooperation between the two countries, which is vital for countering russian aggression in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 1. Continuation of Discrediting Security Guarantees for Ukraine The Center predicts that russia will not ease its information attack on initiatives regarding international security guarantees for Ukraine. During the second half of September, kremlin propaganda will continue to push the idea of the \u201cfictitiousness\u201d of any Western security commitments to Kyiv. In particular, repeated statements…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":37867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}