1. Disinformation campaigns about the negotiations<\/b><\/p>\n
The Center forecasts that the campaign to accuse Ukraine of not wanting peace will continue. Narratives about Ukraine’s so-called non-negotiability are expected to spread, which allegedly deliberately disrupts the negotiation process.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n
It is assumed that the central theme of this campaign will be the occupied territories of Ukraine, which are allegedly russian, and failure to recognize this will be a key reason to accuse Ukraine of being a non-negotiator. Various narratives will be introduced into the Ukrainian information space, suggesting that Kyiv must recognize the occupied territories as russian to end the war, and promoting the idea that Ukraine needs “peace at any cost.”<\/span><\/p>\n It is also planned to spread disinformation about Ukraine’s \u201clack of independence\u201d and its \u201cdependence on Western curators,\u201d primarily Britain and France. Allegedly, these states want a war with russia, so they are forcing Ukraine to continue fighting, disrupting the negotiation process.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Numerous russian information campaigns accusing the Ukrainian military of crimes they did not commit in order to distort reality and create the image of Ukraine’s lack of negotiating power are also possible.<\/span><\/p>\n 2. Intensification of enemy information operations on the anniversary of the tragedy in Odesa\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts intensification of russia’s information operations in late April – first half of May 2025, timed to the next anniversary of the tragic events in Odesa on May 2, 2014.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n russian propaganda is likely to try to use this date for a large-scale campaign to discredit Ukraine, focusing on narratives about the alleged \u201cmass murder of pro-russian activists\u201d by \u201cUkrainian nazis.\u201d The tragic fire in the House of Trade Unions will once again be presented as an \u201cunforgettable crime\u201d in which the Ukrainian authorities and law enforcement agencies are allegedly \u201ccovering up for the guilty.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n New fake \u201cinvestigations,\u201d \u201cdocumentaries,\u201d emotionally charged interviews, and manipulative visuals featuring footage of the tragedy are expected to appear. Special attention will be paid to attempts to mobilize an emotionally vulnerable part of the audience both inside and outside Russia, primarily in the countries of the Global South. An international campaign may be launched through English-language platforms to try to present the tragedy in Odesa as \u201cproof of the criminal nature of the \u2018Kyiv regime\u2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The tragedy in Odesa will also serve as a pretext to intensify the spread of narratives about Odesa as an allegedly \u201crussian city\u201d and the need for the city to be occupied by russian troops.<\/span><\/p>\n 3. Fakes dedicated to May 9 about how Ukrainians are \u201ctrampling on the great victory\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts intensification of russian information operations aimed at discrediting Ukrainian society on the eve of May 9, the date that Russian propaganda uses as a tool for the political cult of the \u201cgreat victory.\u201d It is expected that the key message of the campaign will be the narrative that \u201cUkrainians betrayed the memory of the Victory\u201d by allegedly refusing to honor the heroes of World War II. Manipulations around decolonization and de-russification in Ukraine will be used as evidence of the truth of these theses. The thesis about \u201cUkrainians’ betrayal of the memory of the victory\u201d will traditionally be presented by russia in conjunction with narratives about \u201cnazism in Ukraine,\u201d \u201cdegradation of morality\u201d and \u201cdisregard for history.\u201d\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n Fake news aimed at shaping the image of Ukrainians as people who are \u201ccynical about their historical heritage\u201d may intensify in the information space. On the other hand, manipulative messages are expected to spread that Ukrainians allegedly disagree with the state policy of abandoning the methods of commemorating the victory over nazism that are characteristic of russia. russian resources are likely to disseminate alleged \u201ctestimonies of ordinary citizens\u201d who miss the \u201cforbidden May 9\u201d. This can be used to create the illusion of internal protest against the policy of decolonization in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n It is also expected to promote the demolition of Soviet monuments, renaming of streets, and abandonment of Soviet symbols as examples of alleged \u201chistorical vandalism.\u201d The campaign will be accompanied by the imposition of the image of the russian federation as the only \u201ckeeper of the true memory of the Victory\u201d as opposed to Ukraine’s \u201cbetrayal\u201d of these ideals.<\/span><\/p>\n Enemy propagandists are expected to pay increased attention to the events of May 9 in Kyiv, where EU foreign ministers will gather on Europe Day. The enemy’s propaganda will make great efforts to discredit this event, spreading fakes about the participants of the visit, about \u201cnazis in Ukraine,\u201d and so on. The enemy will contrast the meeting in Kyiv with the victory parade in moscow. russia will use the participation of politicians from some EU countries to provoke a split and destabilize Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n 4. Propaganda for Victory Day abroad, in particular, about underestimating the role of the russian people in the victory over nazism<\/b><\/p>\n The Center\u00a0 forecasts that the russian side will intensify its information operations on May 9, focusing on the alleged \u201cdeliberate belittling of the role of the soviet (russian) people in the victory over nazism\u201d by Western countries. As part of this campaign, russian propaganda will try to consolidate the image of russia as the main winner in World War II, whose role is \u201cdeliberately ignored or falsified\u201d in the West.<\/b><\/p>\n russia is actively promoting the idea of the \u201cgenocide of the soviet people\u201d, thus blurring the contribution of the peoples of all the republics that were part of the ussr to the fight against nazism and fascism; instead, it appropriates all the efforts to itself, because the \u201csoviet people\u201d in russian propaganda is equal to the \u201crussian people\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The narrative that the EU and the US are allegedly \u201crewriting history\u201d by downplaying the contribution of the red army and exaggerating the role of the allies is expected to be actively promoted. Particular emphasis will be placed on demonstrations of \u201chistorical injustice,\u201d such as canceling parades, dismantling Soviet monuments, or changing the format of victory celebrations in European capitals. These messages will be presented as examples of \u201crussophobia\u201d that has even affected the sacred topic of the \u201cgreat victory\u201d for russia, and the alleged return of the \u201cNazi\u201d ideology in Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n 5. Propaganda for the Victory Day in the temporarily occupied territories<\/b><\/p>\n russia’s information activity in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine is expected to intensify as May 9 approaches. As part of its information campaigns, enemy propaganda is likely to draw historical parallels between the \u201cvictory in the great patriotic war\u201d and the current aggression against Ukraine, which the kremlin is trying to present as \u201ca continuation of the fight against nazism.\u201d Through such messages, russia seeks to legitimize the occupation by presenting it as \u201cliberation\u201d and the continuation of the \u201chistorical mission\u201d of the USSR.<\/b><\/p>\n A large number of pseudo-patriotic events are expected to be held with the use of soviet symbols – \u201cimmortal regiment\u201d, \u201clessons of courage\u201d, rallies at monuments, meetings with veterans, etc. Children and young people will be especially actively involved: schoolchildren, students, and members of paramilitary youth organizations such as the \u201cunarmy\u201d or \u201cthe movement of the rirst\u201d. Through such propaganda, russia is trying to form a common identity with russia in the minds of the population of the occupied territories based on the concept of a \u201cgreat victory.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n 6. russia’s information campaigns aimed at shaping the image of \u201caggressive Europe\u201d as an element of justification for its own actions<\/b><\/p>\n russian information operations aimed at creating an image of Europe as an aggressor that is allegedly preparing for a large-scale war with russia are expected to intensify. Propaganda will continue to promote messages that strengthening the defense capabilities of European states allegedly poses a threat to russia. Such rhetoric is likely to become a central element of the narrative about russia being \u201csurrounded\u201d by enemies and the need for early counteraction.<\/b><\/p>\n The main goal of the campaign is to legitimize russia’s aggressive foreign policy, including the build-up of military presence near the borders with NATO, cyberattacks, and destabilization operations in the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Finland, and other neighboring countries. In this way, the russian leadership seeks to present its own actions as \u201cforced defense\u201d and the EU and NATO’s security measures as an alleged provocation. The population’s fears of a possible world war will be actively exploited, with reference to Europe’s allegedly provocative actions and the \u201cinevitability of a major conflict.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Part of this campaign may include information operations to discredit the idea of foreign peacekeeping missions on the territory of Ukraine. In the russian information space, such actions will be called \u201coccupation\u201d or \u201cintervention\u201d and the military themselves will be called \u201caggressors\u201d seeking to \u201cseize resources.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n 7. Presidential elections in Poland and intensification of information campaigns against Ukraine<\/b><\/p>\n On May 18, Poland will hold the first round of presidential elections. The Center forecasts that russia will intensify its information operations to destabilize the situation in the country and to shake up society within Poland as much as possible.<\/b><\/p>\n It is possible that such events will focus on manipulating sensitive historical Polish-Ukrainian events. It is predicted that russian propaganda will try to undermine support for Ukraine by spreading narratives about \u201cwar fatigue,\u201d \u201cthe threat of being drawn into the conflict,\u201d and \u201cthe privileged position of Ukrainians in Poland,\u201d which can be used especially actively to mobilize the far right.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n 8. Destabilization in Moldova<\/b><\/p>\n The Center forecasts that russia will continue to attempt to undermine the internal political situation in Moldova. russian propaganda is expected to split Moldovan society along the lines of \u201cauthoritarian Chisinau – oppression of autonomous Gagauzia and unrecognized TMR\u201d, \u201cusurper Sandu – honest opposition politicians\u201d and \u201cfascist regime of Sandu – feat of the people of the USSR\u201d.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n The \u201cimmortal regiment\u201d is scheduled to take place in Transnistrian cities on May 9, which can also become a convenient field for provocations. After all, in Moldova, the use of the St. George’s ribbon, a traditional attribute of the Victory Day celebration, has been banned since 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 1. Disinformation campaigns about the negotiations The Center forecasts that the campaign to accuse Ukraine of not wanting peace will continue. Narratives about Ukraine’s so-called non-negotiability are expected to spread, which allegedly deliberately disrupts the negotiation process.\u00a0 It is assumed that the central theme of this campaign will be the occupied territories of Ukraine, which…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":31133,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}