{"id":29790,"date":"2025-03-31T10:16:51","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T07:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/?p=29790"},"modified":"2025-03-31T12:18:10","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T09:18:10","slug":"forecast-of-information-threats-by-the-center-for-the-first-half-of-april-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/international-threats-en\/europe\/forecast-of-information-threats-by-the-center-for-the-first-half-of-april-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast of information threats by the Center for the first half of April 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. Disinformation campaign alleging that Ukraine violates the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure<\/strong><\/p>\n

Center forecasts that the kremlin will continue an information campaign accusing Ukraine of failing to comply with the agreements reached in Saudi Arabia. New unsubstantiated accusations against Ukraine regarding strikes on russia\u2019s energy infrastructure are expected to emerge, while enemy propaganda resources will disseminate narratives claiming that Ukraine is allegedly \u201cincapable of honoring agreements\u201d and is attempting to mislead the United States and President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

In addition, the spread of the narrative that \u201cneo-nazi units of the UAF are not controlled by Ukraine\u2019s political leadership and continue shelling despite agreements\u201d is expected to intensify. russia may also carry out provocative attacks and then blame Ukraine.<\/p>\n

In reality, it is russia that has not complied with the ceasefire on energy infrastructure. Claims by kremlin representatives about alleged Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities in russia\u2019s kursk and bryansk regions were previously refuted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The main goal of russia\u2019s disinformation campaign will be to shift responsibility onto Ukraine for non-compliance with the ceasefire, mislead Ukraine\u2019s international partners, and justify further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure amid kremlin\u2019s statements about its alleged willingness to negotiate peace.<\/p>\n

2. Discrediting initiatives within the \u201cCoalition of the willing\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the summit organized by Emmanuel Macron President of France, russia is expected to step up information campaigns to discredit the so-called \u201cCoalition of the willing\u201d \u2014 a group of countries that have expressed readiness to provide Ukraine with security guarantees, including peacekeeping contingent .<\/p>\n

In particular, russia may intensify the narrative that deploying troops to Ukraine would escalate the conflict and result in catastrophic consequences for Europe. russian propaganda will likely also try to fuel anti-Ukrainian, anti-war, or anti-European sentiment in EU countries, promoting arguments against peacekeeping deployments.<\/p>\n

Moreover, russia will attempt to create the impression that discussions within the \u201cCoalition of the willing\u201d reflect serious divisions among European countries. It may also launch information campaigns to scare European audiences with the idea that EU citizens might be drawn into the fighting in Ukraine or by emphasizing the \u201cweakness\u201d of European armies.<\/p>\n

The kremlin will aim to intimidate European societies with the threat of direct conflict with russia, undermine support for Ukraine, provoke division, and create political and public pressure within the EU amid key international discussions.<\/p>\n

3. Discrediting the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein Format.<\/strong><\/p>\n

russian propaganda is expected to intensify its campaign to discredit the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format, whose next meeting is scheduled for April 11 in Brussels, as well as Ukraine\u2019s military aid efforts more broadly.<\/p>\n

Given that the UK will chair the Ramstein meeting and its new government is demonstrating a strong stance in supporting Ukraine, russian propaganda will likely amplify anti-British narratives \u2014 e.g. that London is \u201cdragging Europe into a confrontation with russia\u201d or that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is \u201cdragging the country into a war with russia.\u201d Pro-russian politicians and experts may also become more active in Western media.<\/p>\n

4. Continued discreditation campaign regarding events in the kursk region<\/strong><\/p>\n

Center forecasts that russia will continue its disinformation campaign against Ukraine related to events in the kursk region. The dissemination of fake news and manipulations about \u201catrocities committed by the UAF\u201d will remain a key strategy in this campaign.<\/p>\n

russia may publish staged videos or propaganda productions featuring fake victims \u201ctestifying\u201d about the brutality of Ukrainian soldiers.<\/p>\n

kremlin propaganda systematically employs emotionally charged stories designed to elicit sympathy for allegedly victimized \u201crussian citizens\u201d and \u201crefugees\u201d supposedly targeted by the Ukrainian military \u2014 even though these videos offer no proof.<\/p>\n

Fake claims may also emerge accusing Ukraine of using prohibited weapons. These narratives aim to portray Ukraine as a \u201crogue\u201d force that \u201cthreatens\u201d all of Europe. russia may also engage its diplomatic corps in this disinformation effort, appealing to the UN or other international bodies to fabricate the impression that Ukraine is violating international law in operations in the kursk region.<\/p>\n

To boost morale among domestic audiences, russia will promote narratives about the \u201csuccesses\u201d of its military in the kursk region \u2014 for instance, the ongoing glorification of an operation where russian troops allegedly infiltrated the city of sudzha via a gas pipeline, even though the effectiveness of the operation is questionable.<\/p>\n

5. Intensified propaganda in temporarily occupied territories ahead of the 80th anniversary of victory over nazism<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahead of the 80th anniversary of the victory over nazism, russia will continue to ramp up propaganda activities in the temporarily occupied territories, promoting the image of a \u201cunified front\u201d against nazism, with occupation authorities portrayed as the modern-day continuation of this legacy.<\/p>\n

Occupiers will initiate the creation of murals, monuments, and other symbols glorifying the ussr\u2019s victory. These initiatives will involve official support as well as local administrations, businesses, and public organizations. Propaganda events involving children and youth are also expected to increase in order to militarize and indoctrinate the younger generation.<\/p>\n

6. Intensified disinformation campaigns in Germany amid formation of new government<\/strong><\/p>\n

As negotiations continue between conservatives (CDU\/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany over a new coalition, russia may attempt to destabilize the situation and sway public opinion on continued military and political support for Ukraine. russia may increase the number of public demonstrations \u2014 including by mobilizing its diaspora \u2014 with calls for the German government to end its support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

russia is also likely to escalate social media operations \u2014 using bots and fake accounts to incite protests, spread false stories about coalition agreements, or push specific political messages.<\/p>\n

7. Destabilizing the internal political situation in the Republic of Moldova<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amid Moldova\u2019s pro-European policy, russia will likely try to provoke internal conflict. This is reflected in russian propaganda\u2019s focus on the March 26 airport detention of Evghenia Gu\u021bul, the pro-russian leader of Gagauzia. Notably, Gu\u021bul appealed to v. putin and R. Erdo\u011fa for help, and a small protest in Chi\u0219in\u0103u \u2014 widely covered by russian media \u2014 took place in her support.<\/p>\n

ru-propaganda may use this to accuse Moldovan President Maia Sandu of dictatorship and suppressing national minorities and russian-speaking communities (Gagauzians predominantly speak russian).<\/p>\n

Further accusations may focus on Moldova\u2019s alleged support for fascism, citing a recently published 12th-grade Romanian history textbook.<\/p>\n

With parliamentary elections in Moldova scheduled for the second half of 2025, russian propaganda will likely exploit narratives about \u201cfascist support,\u201d \u201cEuropean handlers,\u201d \u201cdemocracy suppression,\u201d and \u201crussian-speaking population oppression\u201d to divide Moldovan society \u2014 especially in pro-russian regions like Gagauzia and Transnistria.<\/p>\n

8. Information support for ratifying the strategic partnership agreement with Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n

As russia prepares to ratify its strategic partnership treaty with Iran, russian media outlets and officials are expected to provide positive coverage of the agreement, pushing narratives about mutual benefits.<\/p>\n

russian Arabic-language accounts on platforms such as X are also expected to promote the treaty \u2014 highlighting that the strategic partnership supports global stability and resists Western influence in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

9. Support for Yemen\u2019s \u201cAnsar Allah\u201d group amid U.S. airstrikes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Given previous support from russian Arabic-language X accounts for Yemen\u2019s \u201cAnsar Allah\u201d group, these accounts may intensify their support amid ongoing U.S. airstrikes on Yemen.<\/p>\n

Narratives will likely portray the group as defenders of Yemen, Palestine, and the Muslim ummah as a whole. Meanwhile, russian outlets are expected to avoid direct criticism of the U.S., instead amplifying statements from the group\u2019s representatives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. Disinformation campaign alleging that Ukraine violates the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure Center forecasts that the kremlin will continue an information campaign accusing Ukraine of failing to comply with the agreements reached in Saudi Arabia. New unsubstantiated accusations against Ukraine regarding strikes on russia\u2019s energy infrastructure are expected to emerge, while enemy propaganda resources…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":29791,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","wds_primary_category":932,"footnotes":""},"categories":[932],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cpd.gov.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}