❗ The kremlin’s decision to hold pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine and to announce mobilization finally deprives dictator lukashenko of the opportunity to remain a passive supporter of russian aggression. He is faced with a choice: either sharply distance himself from russia or join the total war.
🔎 The first reaction of official Minsk to the news about the mobilization indicated rather a desire to distance itself from the future escalation. lukashenko stated that Belarus “does not plan” to attack Ukraine and has “no desire” to send compatriots to fight.
✅ During the meeting of the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus o.volfovich and the Secretary of the Security Council of the russian federation m.patrushev, any hints about a possible mobilization in Belarus were rejected under the pretext that “the people of Belarus and the country are already mobilized.”
✅ lukashenko himself did not comment at all on the mobilization in russia itself and the “referendums” in the occupied territories, assuring that “there will be no mobilization.”
✅ In an interview with France 24, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus v.makei avoided comments on the topic of “referendums” as much as possible, but noted that “the Belarusian authorities are studying the situation and will make a decision in accordance with our national interests, not the interests of any other country.” Makai also noted that Belarus “will not take part in this war”, moreover, he said exactly about the war, and not about a “special military operation”.
☝️ The desire of official Minsk to distance itself from the situation in russia looks quite natural.
✅ Western sanctions and the loss of the Ukrainian market threw the economy of Belarus into recession, the fall in the GDP of Belarus this year will be about 10%. At the same time, moscow cannot compensate Belarus for all its economic losses, even in spite of the excess profit received from the supply of energy carriers to Europe.
✅ The escalation planned by putin puts Belarus at risk of direct entry into the war. If lukashenko’s regime recognizes the pseudo-referendums, it must consider any offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as an attack on russian territory. In this case, the obligations of bilateral agreements between moscow and Minsk within the framework of the Union State will enter into force, which will force the Belarusian army to enter a full-scale war.
🔺 The military doctrine of the Union State provides that Belarus and the russian federation “consider any actions with the use of military force directed against any of the participating states as an encroachment on the Union State as a whole and will take appropriate measures in response using all forces and means at their disposal”.
✅ Belarusian society and the Belarusian military are strongly against the direct participation of Belarus in the war with Ukraine.
🔻 Against the background of understanding all the risks of such a decision for himself and his regime, lukashenko intensified attempts to resume dialogue with the West and reach a separate agreement with it.
☝️ During backroom meetings with Western diplomats on the sidelines of the session, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus offered the West to “turn the page” of the confrontation and remove sanctions from the potash industry, promising to gradually release political prisoners. However, makei’s main message to the West was the need to save lukashenko from russia and the proposal to involve official Minsk as a mediator in negotiations between Ukraine and the russian federation.
❗ There were no official statements on this matter, because today lukashenko’s regime cannot offer Western capitals the concessions they are waiting for. But in the conditions of protracted international isolation of the regime of lukaskenko, such a behind-the-scenes agreement would allow lukashenko’s regime to feel more confident in its relations with moscow.
🔺 However, the events of recent days indicate that the kremlin is no longer going to put up with the passive role of Belarus in the conflict with Ukraine and attempts to gain support from the West. After all, the loss of Belarus threatens putin with serious complications – he will either have to leave the country or fully occupy it, diverting part of his forces from the war with Ukraine.
❗putin will do everything to force lukashenko to take such a step.
First of all, by narrowing the field for maneuvers of Minsk, the main political goal is to strengthen the international isolation of lukashenko’s regime and limit its opportunities to normalize relations with the rest of the world.
☝️Given the specifics of the situation, the scenario of a palace coup and even the physical elimination of lukashenko in case of his refusal to obey putin does not seem fantastic. Under this option, power will pass to the Security Council of Belarus, headed by “the key agent of the kremlin’s influence within the lukashenko’s regime” a graduate of the Academy of the General Staff of the russian federation, Lieutenant General aleksandr volfovich.
☝️ Thus, lukashenko faces a choice: either he enters into a confrontation with putin and makes a sharp turn to the West, or he decides on the direct participation of the Belarusian military in the invasion of Ukraine.
🔸 Despite lukashenko’s statements about trying to refrain from this step, the probability of the latter scenario remains quite high today.
☝️Although the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War consider the direct participation of Belarus in the war against Ukraine unlikely, formally the country will leave
is an ally of the russian federation and a bridgehead for a possible offensive. Since February 24, Minsk has become an actual participant in russia’s aggression against our country, providing its territory for missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and logistical support for the russian army. Currently, russian sabotage and intelligence groups are making their way from Belarus to Ukraine for terrorist attacks and the murder of Ukrainians.
❗ Currently, there is no escalation of the presence of the russian federation on the territory of Belarus, although up to seven battalion-tactical groups of the Belarusian military are stationed near the borders with Ukraine, and places are being prepared for the deployment of 20,000 mobilized from russia.
