The military threat to Ukraine from the Belarusian direction remains in the center of attention of both the Ukrainian authorities and the average Ukrainian.
The information “throw-ins” of russian propaganda in the official mass media and social networks are trying to create an impression of russia’s readiness to launch a joint strike with the Belarusian military on Ukrainian territory.
Certain alarming signs of a difficult situation in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border should really be troubling, because Belarus remains a bridgehead for the armed forces of the russian federation.
In December, during the visit of russian minister of defense s.shoigu to Belarus, lukashenko said that the russian Belarusian militaries are preparing as a “single group, a single army.” According to Ukrainian intelligence, there are between 5,000 and 9,000 russian soldiers on the territory of Belarus.
On its territory, joint exercises with units of the russian federation are constantly taking place: from January 16 – aviation exercises, from January 31 – “staff training”. Belarusian military equipment is being removed from long-term storage, and lukashenko himself signed a decree on military conscription in February-May 2023.
❓ How real is the threat of an attack from Belarus at the moment?
As the spokesman of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, A.Yusov, stated, there is no threat of a full-scale ground operation by Belarus and its participation on the side of russia today and in the near future.
According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of January 31, the strike group for an attack on Ukraine has not been formed in Belarus. The State Border Service of Ukraine also does not observe signs of the creation of any offensive group on the territory of Belarus, which would be ready to carry out an invasion now, except for russian units that are undergoing training at the training grounds of the Republic of Belarus.
A similar assessment of the situation in Belarus was expressed by the representative of the US National Security Council D. Kirby, who noted that the Pentagon does not see “any signs that Belarus intends or is organizing to enter, physically penetrate the territory of Ukraine to help the russian forces in the war against Ukraine”.
That is, the situation on the border with Belarus remains tense, but fully controlled.
❗️According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the artificial injection of the topic of the threat from Belarus is another manifestation of the hybrid war against Ukraine, namely the information and psychological operation (PSYOP) of the russian special services to divert the attention of the military leadership from the real directions of the russian offensive.
According to the estimates of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the intensification of such information operations is an attempt, on the eve of a possible offensive by the russian federation in the coming months, to force Ukrainian forces to concentrate on the northern border areas.
Prior to this, a similar russian special information operation to divert attention and attempts to disperse Ukrainian troops was observed in the Zaporizhzhia region.
According to ISW, the information operation to push the Ukrainian authorities to build up troops on the northern Ukrainian-Belarusian border is failing, as Ukrainian officials increasingly admit that a russian invasion from the territory of Belarus is extremely unlikely.
This is due to real assessments of the russian presence in Belarus. Against the background of the Belarusian authorities’ formal support for russia’s armed aggression, lukashenko’s willingness to directly participate in the war remains in great doubt. Despite pressure from the kremlin, to date, lukashenko has not made a decision to involve Belarus in a full-scale war and a ground operation against Ukraine, for several reasons.
First, the Belarusian dictator is less and less counting on russia’s support and is trying to avoid the application of a new package of EU sanctions for supporting russian aggression, which will include restrictions on key technologies and the country’s energy sector. This is evidenced by the search for new “friends” in Africa and Lukashenko’s official visit to Zimbabwe.
Secondly, the internal political situation in Belarus restrains Lukashenko from making such a decision.
After all, the partisan and volunteer anti-war movement among the Belarusian society and the reluctance of the Belarusian military to die on Ukrainian soil in the event of such a decision directly threaten his regime.
Given the significant financial and energy dependence on russia, putin will not stop trying to involve Lukashenko in the war against Ukraine, but today there are no signs that these attempts are successful.
❗️Thus, the PSYOP of the russian special services to disperse Ukrainian forces before a possible attack from other directions faces defeat. In the coming months, the russian occupiers are unlikely to use Belarus for a repeated attack on Ukraine.
Currently, the Lukashenko regime’s participation in the war is limited to providing russians with training grounds and access to their country’s airspace.
However, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have worked out all possible scenarios and are in constant readiness.
