The events of recent months have confirmed the fact that Iran has become russia’s main military ally.
Iran provides an unprecedented level of military support to russia, which uses Iranian drones to strike energy infrastructure, depriving millions of Ukrainians of electricity, heat, and critical services.
❓Why did such a defense partnership become possible and how does it affect the situation at the front?
Over the past 30 years, relations between Ukraine and Iran have gone from an ambitious partnership to a complete collapse. All these years, despite the displeasure of the kremlin, Ukraine tried to develop economic cooperation with Iran as deeply as possible, helped develop aviation and nuclear energy, and supplied grain.
Instead, the biggest achievement in relations with Iran was the Ukrainian-Iranian project for large-scale assembly of An-140 (IrAn-140) aircraft at the Iranian company HESA in Isfahan.
At the same time, Iran was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine’s independence on December 25, 1991, and opened an embassy in Kyiv in January 1992. It is now obvious that, taking advantage of Ukraine’s industrial potential, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime sought to overcome the consequences of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq and integrate Iran into the world economy.
The deterioration of interstate relations began with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, which finally cemented Ukraine’s move towards the EU and NATO. Then Iran, at the urging of the kremlin, actually included Ukraine among the supporters of the United States. And a real «black day» in the relations between the two countries was the downing of a Ukrainian UIA plane flying on the Tehran-Kyiv route on January 8, 2020, in the sky over Iran. At first, Iran denied involvement in the crash, but later admitted that the plane was «mistakenly» shot down by the country’s air defense system, but refused to agree on compensation for the relatives of the victims.
The authorities of Canada and Ukraine recognized the results of the investigation as unsatisfactory and insisted on the version of the intentional downing of the plane in order to stop the military escalation with the United States.
For the second time, Iran was caught in a lie already during the full-scale war of tussia against Ukraine. Iran regularly claims that it opposes it. On March 14, during a telephone conversation with the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, D. Kuleba, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran confirmed that the authorities of Iran are against russian aggression and will support «any political efforts to resolve the crisis». However, after putin’s visit to Iran and negotiations with the real leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, already in July there were reports in the media about the possible supply of Iranian combat drones to russia.
And although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran has repeatedly assured Ukraine that the supply of Iranian weapons to russia will not take place, since September 13, the russians began using Iranian drones Shahed-129 and Shahed-191 to attack military facilities and energy infrastructure of Ukraine. In October, information appeared in the media about Iran’s possible transfer of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles to russia. In response to the supply of Iranian weapons to russia, Ukraine revoked Iran’s ambassador’s accreditation on September 23, and on October 18, D. Kuleba submitted to the President a proposal to sever diplomatic relations with Iran.
❗️Thus, Iranian-russian relations harm not only Ukraine and Iran’s neighbors in the Middle East, but also threaten global security. The past extensive cooperation with Iran, which Ukraine built in the 1990s and 2000s, should not be evaluated through the lens of current events. It is Tehran that bears full responsibility for the destruction of relations with Ukraine and becomes complicit in russia’s war crimes.
After all, the political and economic Iranian-russian alliance is currently based on a temporary coincidence of interests. Iran wants political and economic support from russia, and for putin it is important to build an anti-democratic coalition against the West and, accordingly, involve Iran fully in the war in Ukraine.
There is every reason to predict that Iran’s support for the russian military will continue to grow in the coming months.
The threat of new sanctions from the West remains a restraining tool for influencing Iran’s position on the «Ukrainian issue». The new package of sanctions against Iran approved by the EU on December 12 for the supply of kamikaze drones, as well as for the suppression of protests, has already pushed Iran to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide to russia.
In addition, there is a huge gap in Iranian society between the official authorities and the population, most of which does not support Iran’s involvement in the russia-Ukraine war.
In this regard, against the background of continuing diplomatic efforts, it is necessary to develop Ukraine’s relations with the Iranian diaspora, which in several European countries has held thousands of actions against the Iranian regime. And we will restore official relations after our victory.
