Forecasting the timing of the end of the war in Ukraine remains in the focus of attention of Ukrainian and international experts. Among the majority of Ukrainian experts and the military, there is still confidence that our country can end the conflict with a victorious result as early as 2023. However, some Western analysts are more skeptical about these forecasts.
❓ What do Western experts, politicians and the military predict for the current year?
🔸 Military experts of the British newspaper Financial Times believe «the war in Ukraine will continue during the whole year, neither Kyiv nor moscow will agree to freeze the conflict», and russia is preparing its people for a long war and will try to regroup.
🔸 The course of the 2023 war in Ukraine will be determined in the next few months, according to michael kofman, director of the russia Research Program at the Corporate News Agency and Kennan Institute employee. The latter depicts three scenarios for the development of events in the war this winter. According to an optimistic scenario, russian defenses on one of the fronts will be destroyed, which will be an incentive for a Ukrainian breakthrough. In a more pessimistic, but unlikely scenario, russian forces will be able to regroup and begin offensive operations after February. Kofman considers a more likely scenario for the next few months to be a «dynamic front», i.e., a battle of attrition and localized offensive operations on both sides. According to this scenario, «Ukraine retains the initiative and can steadily advance towards its goals. After Kherson, the russian military…will be able to restore significant offensive potential» and will focus on seizing the territories of the Donetsk region».
🔸 Retired US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton predicts that putin in 2023 will try to «bring the war to a stalemate», intensify attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, and russian troops will focus on attempts to advance into new areas of Donbas. At the same time, he is convinced that «putin will not succeed» due to problems with logistics and supplies in the russian army.
🔸 Anders Aslund, an expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington, predicts Ukraine’s victory in 2023. According to his forecasts, in 2023 «Ukraine will decisively defeat russia», «putin’s regime of authoritarian kleptocracy will be destroyed…(he) will lose power and possibly his life».
🔸 The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, Edgars Rinkevičs, believes that due to the dynamics of russia’s war against Ukraine it is difficult to predict. It may be protracted, and overcoming the consequences will take a long time.
🔸 The head of the committee of the French parliament on National Defense and the Armed Forces Thomas Gassilhoud, warned that putin is preparing for a long-term war and is counting on the exhaustion of Ukrainians and «war fatigue» of Western countries.
🔸 According to the forecast of the former Commanding General of US Army forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, «all the momentum is currently on the side of Ukraine», and Ukraine will be able to win the war in 2023, and by the end of August 2023 to liberate Crimea. His colleague, former Commander-in-Chief of NATO forces in Europe, retired General James Jones, is also convinced that the war will end in 2023 with the victory of Ukraine.
🔸 According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, russia hopes to freeze the conflict and gain time to regroup and prepare for a new offensive in the winter.
🔸 Professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland Phillips O’Brien is sure that Ukraine will emerge victorious in the war with russia. However, military defeats have not yet become such a decisive argument for putin to retreat, and putin’s statements indicate that they are determined to continue the «special operation» in 2023.
🔸 Francis Fukuyama, a famous American political scientist and director of the Center for the Development of Democracy at Stanford University, believes that the liberation of Crimea in 2023 is quite likely. This will happen «after de-occupying Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine»
❓ What strategy of the russian federation do experts predict for 2023?
Despite the lack of any success at the front and the virtually crushed army, the kremlin wants to continue armed aggression against Ukraine, and insists that the russian army will not leave the occupied lands. According to the Ukrainian military leadership, the priorities for russia in the military campaign for the first half of this year will be the maintenance of the land corridor to Crimea through Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, as well as an attempt to expand the occupied lands of Donbas. The opening of a «second front» in Belarus is assessed as unlikely due to the occupiers’ lack of the necessary forces and means for an offensive operation against Ukraine, as well as the position of lukashenko, who continues to evade kremlin pressure.
❗️In summary, we can say that the answer to the question whether 2023 will be decisive in the war with russia depends on several circumstances. However, despite the fact that difficult times are ahead for the Ukrainians, russia will definitely lose.
