When Recep Tayyip Erdogan received the presidential mandate for another five years, the main intrigue remains – how it will affect relations with the West, Ukraine and russia.
The US and its NATO allies met Erdogan’s victory rather discreetly. After all, under his leadership, Turkey deepened ties with russia and in 2019 purchased several S-400 air defense systems. Due to accusations of hiding enemies of the state, Turkey blocked Sweden’s application to join NATO. And the aggressive actions of the Turkish leadership towards Greece and Cyprus and Erdogan’s support for Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia caused the irritation of the West. In Iraq and Syria, Turkish troops are fighting a group called the People’s Protection Units, which the United States considers one of its key allies opposing the regime of President B. Assad in Syria. Moreover, during the election, Erdogan accused the United States of wanting to remove him from power.
So it is not surprising that the West was betting on the victory of the opposition candidate K. Kılıçdaroğlu, who promised to focus on establishing relations with Western countries and to support russia less in the war against Ukraine. Kılıçdaroğlu declared that he would renew Turkey’s application for EU membership and ensure the country’s implementation of the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights. Regarding Turkey’s presence in Iraq and Syria, Kılıçdaroğlu assured that as president he would choose a policy of “non-interference” in the affairs of other countries.
Such circumstances give reason to predict that relations between Ankara and Washington will depend on the ability to reach a compromise. After all, Erdogan is ready to bargain with the West, in particular to agree to Sweden joining NATO in the event of Turkey’s return to the fighter jet production program.
Regarding the prospects of Turkey’s policy in Libya, taking into account Erdogan’s many years of business interests there, his support for the Government of National Unity of Libya against the rebels in the east of the country led by General Haftar will continue.
As for the russia-Ukraine war, Turkey’s policy will likely remain on the verge of balancing the interests of russia and Ukraine.
Most likely, Ankara will continue to not recognize the territories annexed by russia, will continue to block the sea straits, preventing an increase in the number of ships of the russian fleet in the waters of the Black Sea. Cooperation in the military-technical sphere will continue, in particular on the construction of the Bayraktar UAV production plant in Ukraine. Erdogan’s role as a mediator in the release of Ukrainian soldiers from russian captivity will be preserved. In addition, Turkey will remain a key player in the grain agreement, on which the export of Ukrainian grain depends to a certain extent.
At the same time, Erdogan will continue to increase economic ties with russia and maintain personal relations with his “friend” putin. After all, not least, Erdogan’s victory is due to russia’s support. It was to maintain Erdogan’s rating in the second round of the elections that the kremlin decided to extend the grain agreement without any guarantees for itself. Under the guise of financing the construction of a nuclear power plant in Turkey, the russian company “rosatom” provided the Turkish authorities with $5 billion, which helped somewhat stabilize the Turkish economy and thus improve Erdogan’s position before the presidential elections.
Taking into account the mentioned circumstances, it can be predicted that the newly elected president will continue cooperation with the russian federation in the energy and military spheres. Therefore, the operation of the pipelines built in 2014 for the supply of russian gas to the south of Europe and negotiations on the creation of a gas hub on the territory of Turkey, with the help of which the russian federation will be able to supply sanctioned “goods” to European buyers, will continue. In the military sphere, negotiations will continue regarding Turkey’s purchase of russian Su-35s. The further use of Turkey’s territory for the “black” re-export of weapons from African and Middle Eastern countries to arm the “wagner” missile defense system, as well as the transit to russia of secret technologies, electronics, chips, components of vehicles used for military purposes, is not excluded. The grain agreement with Erdogan will allow putin to continue sending russian ships with stolen Ukrainian grain to Asian countries. Undoubtedly, Erdogan will use the moment to replace with Turkish entrepreneurs the Western companies that have left russia due to sanctions.
At the same time, although Erdogan and putin currently remain potential allies, in fact they have different interests in Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans. Therefore, Erdogan will follow this policy towards russia as long as it is beneficial to support his regime. Everything can change if Erdogan reaches an understanding with the West and russia loses the war against Ukraine.
❗️So a situational “friend” of the re-elected President Erdogan can become a country that supports the economic and political interests of Turkey.
