According to Jake Sullivan, it is still not clear whether Iran managed to provide Russia with these drones, however, according to the information available in the White House, there is some evidence that Teheran is preparing to train Russian personnel to use drones in July.

Drones have become an important component of the war in Ukraine on both sides: the Ukrainian military uses Bayraktar-TB2 and AeroVironment AVAV.O RQ-20 Puma AE UAVs to destroy Russian command posts, tanks, and anti-aircraft missile systems, while the Russians use home-made Orlan-10 drones and “Forpost” – a licensed Israeli “Searcher” UAV.

So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already destroyed almost 50% of Russian UAVs.  The usage of licensed technology for “Forpost” drones has become unavailable, as Israel maintains neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Why is Russia counting on Iran?

Iranian authorities have been improving their own drone production program for the past 20 years.  In particular, Iran knows how to make “kamikadze drones” like the Switchblade, which the USA handed over to Ukraine.

Under Western sanctions, Iran has illegally supplied weapons to terrorist groups.  Iran provided similar drones to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia before a ceasefire was agreed upon earlier this year.  In October the US and its allies accused Tehran of drone attacks, including a US base in Syria.

In response, the US imposed sanctions on Iranian companies and their executives that were linked to the development of drones.  Iran’s nuclear program and Iran’s malign activities in the region will be key topics of discussion during US President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Recently deciphered US intelligence finds indicate that Russia is already receiving ammunition and military equipment from Iraq for military operations in Ukraine.  russia uses Iranian arms smuggling networks to supply weapons from a country under international sanctions. In particular, RPGs and anti-tank missiles in the possession of the most powerful Shiite group Hashd al-Shaabi were delivered to Iran through the Salamja border crossing, where they were received by the Iranian military and delivered to Russia by sea on March 26.

Also, on April 1, Hashd al-Shaabi sent two Astros II self-propelled multiple rocket launchers, which crossed the Caspian Sea from the Iranian port of Bender-Enzeli with three cargo ships (two under the Russian flag and one under the Iranian flag) and arrived in Astrakhan.  In March of this year  RPGs and anti-tank missiles and an Iranian-made Bavar 373 missile complex were sent to Russia from Iraq using Iranian smugglers.

The inability to ensure the production of UAVs by its own forces and the loss of the possibility of imports forced the Kremlin to turn to the Iranian government, which does not abhor arms smuggling, for help.

Thus, the defeat of the military “special operation” and the difficulties experienced by Russia in maintaining its own stockpiles of weapons, force the Kremlin to change its strategy and count on Iran – its military ally in Syria.

However, the Kremlin’s attempts to compensate for the loss of its own drones at the expense of Iran will not change the general situation on the front due to their low efficiency compared to Bayraktar, complex delivery logistics, and the dependence of their production on imported components, the import of which is prohibited by Western sanctions.