The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain, citing its own intelligence, reports that the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, S. Shoigu, is actually removed from the actual leadership of the troops in Ukraine, and Putin is informed about the progress of the war by operational commanders who are directly responsible for combat operations.
Why did Shoigu stop being Putin’s favourite? After all, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin showed Shoigu such special attention and closeness that he did not even have with his old friends from St. Petersburg. They spent vacations together more than once, climbed the mountains for a few days or went to the taiga, where, in particular, they discussed plans for the introduction of troops into Ukraine.
British intelligence divulges several reasons:
It was Shoigu who was assured by Putin of the precarious position of the authorities in Kyiv and that the Ukrainian regions, as soon as they are given such an opportunity, are ready to reject it and support Moscow. He promised Putin to solve all the tasks set in Ukraine with the composition of the peacetime army – without general mobilization and in the shortest possible time. As a result, the promises remained unfulfilled, and the task of taking Kyiv within three days remained unresolved.
The military attributes the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine to the incompetence of Shoigu, who has no military education and experience, because he spent most of his career in the construction industry and in the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
Because of this, Shoigu, as commander-in-chief, does not enjoy the respect and trust of the generals and officers of the contingent operating in Ukraine. Moreover, Russian soldiers who have first-hand experience of the war regularly deride the Shoigu for his ineffective and detached command of the troops. As a result of incompetent management, offensive actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine slowed down, and military activity today is limited to local attacks in the Donbass in order to delay the advance of the units of the Armed Forces.
In the absence of real information, Putin tried to save the situation by personally leading the troops, but he quickly realized the absurdity of this step. But he came to practice, bypassing the Shoigu, to consult with generals who have experience of managing in the combat conditions of Syria and other hot spots.
Moreover, Putin, without taking into account the opinion of the Shoigu, began to make decisions about key appointments in the military. So, despite Shoigu’s unfriendly attitude towards Colonel-General Teplinskyi, he was appointed commander of the airborne troops in June of this year.
The course of hostilities revealed the obvious – the number of Russian and pro-Russian military groups in Ukraine (150,000–180,000 soldiers and officers, including the troops of the so-called DPR/LPR) is not enough to gain an advantage. After all, with the start of hostilities, the number of Ukrainian troops was increased from 250,000 to 700,000.
Given the Shoigu’s promises to solve combat tasks exclusively with the forces of a professional army, Putin is still opposed to mobilization. Therefore, the army leadership is trying to compensate for the insufficient number of soldiers and officers at the front in all available ways – from the prohibition of the release of contract workers to the involvement in combat operations of private military companies and prisoners.
In addition, with the tacit approval of the Shoigu, the struggle for “power” between the so-called military forces in the occupied territories of the Kherson region intensified. Shoigu groups and FSB employees. Thus, the military “groups of the Shoigu” took revenge on the FSB group for the previous searches of “their” people in the Kherson “regional military-civilian administration” when they were not warned about the repeated attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the barracks in July last year.
Today, behind Putin’s back, the “people of the Shoigu” are hiring public relations officers for the budget money to spread in the Russian mass media publications about the transfer of responsibility for the defeat of the blitzkrieg and disinformation of the President of the Russian Federation about the situation in Ukraine before the start of the “special operation” from the Shoigu to the FSB. In response, the Department of Military Counterintelligence of the FSB publishes facts about the unpreparedness of military officials for war and corruption among the Shoigu’s close associates. All this brings even greater disorder and chaos to the management of the troops and special services of the Russian Federation, reducing the already low potential of the “special operation” in Ukraine.
According to sources close to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Shoigu has not yet been dismissed only because Putin does not want to change the Minister of Defense in a time of need. But they insist that as soon as another candidate is selected, he will be replaced.
