Not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for a counteroffensive, but also russian propaganda. The authorities of the russian federation do not expect anything good from the future counteroffensive of the Ukrainian military and therefore prepare an informational space for their citizens in advance with the intention of “reducing the upheaval”.
The journalists of the russian opposition publication “Meduza” found themselves in possession of a new instruction prepared by the putin administration for russian propagandists, with ‘’pieces of advice’’ on how to cover a potential Ukrainian offensive and correctly place the emphasis on the event of a military failure of the russian army. Thus, the manual, known in the media environment as a “temnyk”, orders journalists “not to lower expectations regarding the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive” and not to claim that “Kyiv is not ready for a counteroffensive.” On the contrary, the pro-government media should not create false hopes among russians about the weakness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and should also focus the attention of the audience on the fact that Ukraine receives strong support from the West. In addition, the manual “advises” propagandists “not to raise” the topic of spending the russian budget on “restoring the infrastructure” of the occupied regions of Ukraine. The kremlin fears that russians will be unhappy with expenses from the russian budget for Ukrainian territories if there are problems in russia itself, as was the case with the “restoration” of Crimea. Instead, an instruction is given to spread as much as possible in the info space news about repairs in schools, kindergartens, and hospitals in russian cities. Also, the manual recommends propagandists “not to mush” the topic of preparation for the May 9 parade.
What does russia’s adjustment of information coverage of military events in Ukraine mean?
Firstly, the kremlin recognizes the likely success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and is trying to soften the demoralization of russian society and prevent a drop in the government’s rating, as it was after the military failures of the russian federation in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Such a strategy solves two ideological tasks. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive is unsuccessful, the mass media will announce that it is the result of the skillful actions of the russian army against a powerful opponent with Western weapons. And if Ukraine succeeds in its counteroffensive and liberates certain territories, the propagandists must convincingly explain to the russian population how the russian armed forces tried to contain the onslaught of the enemy and only the supply of weapons from the United States and Europe allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to achieve “modest successes”, which are not so devastating.
There is also a possibility that the spread of such “temnyk” is a preparatory stage for the announcement by the russian military-political leadership of the end of “smo” and the order to the troops in the already occupied territories of Ukraine to enter a mode of passive defense.
Secondly, such “temnyk” is just a new component of previous informational and psychological special operations from russia’s attempts to provoke panic among Ukrainians. Previously, journalists were already at the disposal of similar kremlin techniques that informed propagandists how to “correctly” sum up the results of the year, talk about martial law and mobilization in russia, or comment on putin’s statements about achieving the goal of demilitarization of Ukraine. In addition, recently the heads of st.petersburg police units were sent an analytical report on the struggle of the NKVD with “nationalists in the western regions of the USSR” with a proposal to use the experience of the Soviet state security during a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Currently, propaganda is aimed at spreading fakes about the alleged “conflict” between the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyy and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhnyy, “corruption” in the military, “low-quality” military equipment transferred by Western partners, etc.
Thirdly, the determination of coverage of events on the occasion of May 9 as an “undesirable topic” is connected with several reasons. On the one hand, the authorities cannot guarantee the safety of events and are forced to agree to the cancellation of the holiday in several regions of russia. On the other hand, the decision to cancel the traditional procession of the “immortal regiment” in moscow and other cities is due to the fear that this event will take on an anti-war character, when, along with the portraits of relatives who died in the Second World War, russians will carry portraits of those who died in the war in Ukraine. In addition, the parade on red square will feature less modern equipment than last year, which will create an additional demoralizing effect.
❗️Yes, the russian authorities are preparing an information space to justify to their citizens the new defeat of the russian federation due to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, seeking in this way to maximally restrain the fall in putin’s trust rating. However, it is increasingly difficult to convince russian society of the effectiveness of the “special operation” and the successful future of the country under the current leadership.
