What consequences are likely to be caused for Ukraine by British Prime Minister’s resignation?
On July 7, 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation. The resignation has come as the result of numerous scandals, including the parties and gatherings of government at the pandemic peak (Partygate scandal) and accusations of sexual misconduct against an influential conservative. Johnson will remain formally on the post until the chair is handed to a new leader. The Conservative Party leadership contests will take place this summer, and the new Prime Minister will take over in October.
Before his resignation, Johnson informed the ministers and fellow party members, that as long as the war in Ukraine continues, russia will remain a security threat for the whole continent. Johnson personally stood up to the British decision to start providing military support to Ukraine before the invasion, which was an important signal for other countries.
Nevertheless, the event has caused doubts that changes in the government, new appointments may slow down certain British defense initiatives, and the political crisis in Britain may provoke putin into impudent actions.
What should Ukraine expect from the following British Prime Minister?
The main candidates from the Conservative Party have a strong anti-russian position, campaigning for the war resolution only by the victory of Ukraine, for which British support is essential.
As of July 6–7, 2022, British Defense Minister B. Wallace ranks first in the polls. The probability of his victory in the elections in October is estimated to be very high.
If such a tendency remains, Ukraine will get a person who knows well what our country really needs nowadays.
In the political circles of the Conservative Party, Wallace is considered as a keystone of British armed support to Ukraine, as all processes concerning military assistance are initiated or supported by Wallace.
However, his political career and activities are based only on the military sphere, so he must gain enough support from the party to win the elections.
A member of the British Conservative Party, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Justice and Lord Chancellor of the UK Dominic Raab actively supported the position of the British government and Johnson on military support for Ukraine. However, in July 2021, he got into a scandal, taking 25 thousand pounds from the former russian banker, dr. leus. Raab’s candidacy is considered only as part of Johnson’s immediate dismissal and the appointment of a new prime minister by the Queen. Therefore, the probability of his victory in the elections in October is estimated as low.
The probability of Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Liz Truss victory on the elections is determined as high. According to her position, Liz Truss keeps an active position against russia, concerning Ukraine issue.
Among the top-list of possible candidates for the post of Prime Minister are the Secretary of State for International Trade, Penelope Mary Mordaunt, whose victory is assessed by experts as very high. Mordaunt’s activity concerning issue of russian war in Ukraine is minimal. However, its support for B. Wallace and military experience are important in the further cooperation between Ukraine and Britain.
Rishi Sunak, MP for Richmond, York State, North Yorkshire, is a likely candidate to replace Johnson. However, his economic policy is not popular among many members of the Conservative Party. Sunak actively called on British companies to leave the russian market, but he himself was caught in a scandal for continued activity on the russian way of Infosys company, one of the ultimate beneficiaries of which was his wife Akshat Murti.
The Conservative Party itself, like the British elite, currently has no internal contradictions regarding the continuation of Ukraine’s support, and the next prime minister will follow this strategy.
Thus, whatever the outcome of the British Prime Minister’s October elections, the British doctrine concerning Ukraine will not change, and the country will remain an important partner for Britain.
Moreover, recent British public opinion polls on the russia-Ukraine war showed that 83% of Britons will continue to support Ukraine.
