On the night of August 29-30, at least six regions of the russian federation were subjected to a massive drone attack. In particular, 4 Il-76 transport aircraft were destroyed and 2 damaged at a military airfield near Pskov. This airfield is home to the 104th Guards Air Assault Regiment, which in February 2022 was tasked with capturing the north of Kyiv region and entering Kyiv. Il-76 aircraft of this particular unit landed in Crimea in 2014 and in Hostomel in 2022 and participated in war crimes in Bucha. It should be noted that the drone strike on targets in russia occurred on the night when russian troops shelled Kyiv with cruise missiles and drones, killing two people.
What does this mean for russia?
First, the shelling of the airfield came as an unpleasant surprise to both the residents of the region and the russian authorities in general. After all, unlike the usual shelling of russia’s border areas, the northern regions were considered to be fully protected. However, after the attack, it became obvious that there are fewer and fewer safe areas in russia, and the massive and accurate use of the UAVs leaves all military facilities within a 700-kilometer radius of the Ukrainian border in the target zone.
At the geopolitical level, the vulnerability of russia’s military infrastructure on the borders with NATO has been revealed, which significantly weakens the kremlin’s position in its attempts to put pressure on Europe over the “Ukrainian issue”, as a possible NATO strike would have catastrophic consequences for the russian Armed Forces. Therefore, the belief that russia is incapable of a military confrontation with the Alliance will gain supporters in NATO headquarters in favor of further support for Ukraine.
Secondly, the unimpeded drone strike on the airport caused a storm of criticism of the government in russia by ordinary russians and forces opposed to the kremlin. The leadership of the defense ministry and putin personally are criticized on social media for failing to protect the territory of the russian federation, for not keeping expensive military aircraft in hangars. All this leads to a loss of the government’s rating ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections in russia.
Thirdly, from a military point of view, the destruction of each unit of military transport aircraft is a blow to the strategic potential of russia. Therefore, the destruction of 4 russian Il-76 aircraft of the elite airborne assault unit dealt a sensitive blow to the combat capability and logistics of transporting troops and equipment to Ukraine. In addition, the russian Defense Ministry was humiliated by the information that Russian air defense systems were powerless against the attack of Australian SYPAQ civilian drones modernized by Ukrainian specialists.
According to experts from the American Institute for the Study of War, this situation was made possible by the fact that the most advanced air defense systems (Pantsir-S1) and electronic warfare were concentrated by the russians to cover moscow.
As you know, each drone attack provides those who launched it with valuable information about the location of air defense and electronic warfare assets and, accordingly, about gaps in air defense. This proves the imperfection of the continuous strip of electronic interference created by russia on the border with Ukraine, which is easily penetrated by Ukrainian drones. To somehow remedy the situation, the enterprises of the “Almaz-Antey” concern, russia’s largest manufacturer of air defense systems, have been transferred to a round-the-clock operation, but it is impossible to increase production volumes quickly.
Finally, russian intelligence failed to assess Ukraine’s ability to produce and use long-range kamikaze drones capable of covering such a long distance. The massive strikes on russian territory proved that Ukraine has long been investing in the development and construction of unmanned aerial vehicles and has the ability to produce them on its own or receive them from partners. This largely devalues the russian campaign of shelling Ukraine with Iranian-made drones, which is becoming less and less effective amid the lack of legal and open access to electronics and a shortage of gasoline engines. In order to somehow shift the focus away from the imperfect air defense system that allowed the drones to reach Pskov, russian propaganda is spreading fake information about alleged drone attacks from third countries, including Estonia and Latvia. However, Western experts estimate the likelihood of drones being sent from the Baltic states to be close to zero, as an attack by a NATO country on a military facility in russia could provoke a nuclear conflict.
Massive drone strikes have largely changed the perception of the war by both Ukrainians and russians. Drones have become a relatively inexpensive way to transfer shelling to russian territory and boost Ukrainian morale. For the russians, it is an additional confirmation that the government is unable to protect them and, in general, calls into question the need for the so-called “smo”. At the same time, the Ukrainian defense industry is increasing its own production of UAVs and improving the technical characteristics of drones from other manufacturers, so the intensity and frequency of such attacks will only increase.
