On August 5-6, Saudi Arabia hosted the second technical meeting to prepare for the peace summit. Although the participating states did not agree on all the points of the Peace Formula amid general support, most countries recognized the undeniable respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as the supremacy of the UN Charter, which should be the basis of any peace agreement. There were also no objections to such a point of the Peace Formula as the return of Crimea and Donbas to Ukraine.

What prevents us from agreeing on all 10 points of the Ukrainian peace formula?

First, according to the head of the ministry of foreign affairs of the russian federation, s.lavrov, russia will not negotiate on the basis of Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula and may start truce talks if Kyiv agrees that the four southeastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea are part of russian territory. Thus, while there are no fundamental objections to the requirements of paragraph 5 of the plan on territorial integrity (i.e., russia’s renunciation of the annexation of Crimea and Ukrainian regions) and paragraph 6 on the complete de-occupation of Ukraine, there is no effective mechanism for their implementation. Obviously, in the absence of a political option to end the war, President Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula can be fully implemented only if russia is completely defeated or forced to surrender.

Secondly, the key problematic point of the plan for the states in the kremlin’s orbit of influence is paragraph 7 – “Restoration of Justice”, which provides for the punishment of the russian political leadership guilty of aggression and war crimes and the payment of reparations to Ukraine. Undoubtedly, states that agree to this point will become opponents for the kremlin, which will be especially sensitive for the BRICS members. The only way to convince the doubting states to support this point of the Ukrainian plan is to prove to them the inevitability of russia’s military defeat. There is also no international legal mechanism for future punishment of russia. By abusing its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, russia can block any decision against it.

To a large extent, the resolution of this issue depends on the position of China, which has so far been cautious about Ukraine’s anti-russian initiatives. The proposed Chinese plan is unacceptable to Ukraine, as it includes clauses on the de facto freezing of the conflict, the termination of Western security support, and the lifting of sanctions. However, Beijing’s participation in the negotiations indicates that it is hesitant to continue supporting the kremlin. This is because although China is still trying to maintain its neutrality and tacit support for russia, its economy is increasingly facing the risks caused by the aggression against Ukraine. russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal dealt a sensitive blow to Beijing, as one of the largest buyers of Ukrainian grain. In these circumstances, it is possible that China will support some of the points of Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula and begin to push the kremlin to realistic negotiations not in the form of ultimatums and demands.

Thirdly, from the very beginning, the plan was prepared not for negotiations with russia, but for harmonizing and strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating positions with other countries of the world. The protest against the 10 points of the Peace Formula lacks detail, because these are just the framework names of directions by which the world should solve the problems created by the aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. Therefore, the question of the parameters of the capitulation of the russian federation with the complete liberation of Ukraine, the payment of reparations, a tribunal over the kremlin leadership, etc., needs a more thorough explanation and presentation to the participants of the meeting. On the other hand, the vaguely worded points of the plan provide an opportunity for negotiation and coordination of details, which occurs during consultations. The main task of the peace plan remains to consolidate the Ukrainian vision of victory in the world consciousness, namely, complete de-occupation, return of all territories, establishment of justice, etc. This gives hope that, whatever the development of events on the russian-Ukrainian front, none of the Western partners will be tempted to reach the point of neglecting the interests of Ukraine or part of its territory.

❗️A working meeting on August 5-6 was a step towards the practical implementation of peace initiatives proposed by Ukraine, where most participating states have already defined their role in implementing certain points of the Peace Formula. The issues that are not yet agreed upon are to be discussed within a month during a meeting of advisors, as Ukraine is working to ensure that the Global Peace Summit takes place in the fall. The rapid growth in the number of countries that have supported the preparation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula (58 countries compared to 43 in August) gives reason to hope that a common position on its implementation will be agreed upon.