Ukraine is currently experiencing the largest strategic missile bombing in recent world history. From the fall of 2022, the russians launched up to 5,000 missiles of almost the entire range, including more than 900 cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as about 700 barrage ammunition of the Shahed UAV.

On May 22, a group of fighters posing as members of the “russian Volunteer Corps” and the Legion “Freedom of russia” moved from Ukraine to the territory of the Grayvoron city district of the Belgorod region and declared that they were liberating the settlements from the current russian authorities. This event against the background of systematic shelling of the russian border areas with Ukraine caused real panic among the population and confusion of the local administration and military command. The authorities of the Belgorod region, on the territory of which the most frequent cross-border shelling takes place, announced plans to evacuate women and children to the voronezh region, penza, yaroslavl and kaluga.

What is the reason for the noticeable increase in the number of cross-border shelling in both directions?

By shelling the Ukrainian border, the kremlin is trying to divert the attention of ordinary russians from the shocking events of recent weeks. Unhindered strikes by missiles and drones on russian territory, which thundered there for the first time since 1945, shook the faith of russians in the ability of the authorities not only to win the war with Ukraine, but also to guarantee the safety of their families and relatives. Only the one who started it can explain to the people why the “special military operation” led to such a situation. But putin is in such conditions where it is better to remain silent.

The rating of trust in the government is falling rapidly and putin’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections does not look so certain for his entourage. In anticipation of possible changes on the kremlin’s Olympus, the war between the clans surrounding the dictator intensified. Even supporters try to distance themselves from putin, and his former “cook” and part-time leader of the PMC “wagner” is there. prigozhin called his benefactor an “inadequate grandfather”. prigozhin’s conflict with shoigu and gerasimov long ago went beyond a confrontation on purely military issues to an open struggle for power in the kremlin. Against the background of the actions of the “wagner” PMC in Bakhmut, the not-unfounded accusations by prigozhin of the military leadership of the armed forces of russia of incompetence, his political rating has dropped so much that it poses a direct threat to putin’s power.

It is no longer possible to reassure the people with confident victories at the front, because after Bakhmut, the russian troops are unable to advance, and the maintenance of the already occupied Ukrainian territories remains under threat. Over the past two months, russia has suffered massive military losses – only 50% of the battalion tactical groups it had at the start of the war remain, and there are no contractors or volunteers to replace those losses.

The only chance for putin to at least somehow contain popular discontent remains the increase in the scale of shelling of Ukrainian territories in order to divert attention from his own military failures (the zone affected by russian troops covers the territory of 13 regions of Ukraine).

It is clear that for Ukraine, the shelling of Belgorod region is a forced mirror response to the shelling of Kharkiv and the region, which began immediately after the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. On the other hand, the transfer of military operations to the russian border is one of the factors ensuring the success of the future counteroffensive. In addition, the West confirmed Ukraine’s full right to retaliate against russian territory. And the American political scientist E. Mihta considers the increase in attacks to be another reason for greater international support for Ukraine.

❗️So, in recent weeks, a fundamentally new phase of the war has begun, which differs from the previous one by the constant transition of hostilities to russian territory.

Efforts by the russian authorities to shift the focus of russians’ attention from the political and military impotence of the kremlin to the apparently successful shelling of the regions of Ukraine bordering russia remain unsuccessful. Against the background of the deepening management crisis, more and more russians realize that the responsibility for the fact that “smo” has now moved to the territory of the bryansk, belgorod and kursk regions lies directly with the president of the russian federation. After all, the military actions in the previously peaceful, calm regions of russia were the result of the decision to conduct “smo” in Ukraine, which was taken personally by putin. Accordingly, the cessation of shelling and attacks on the border regions depends directly on him. But while the forces inside russia decide how to change the power in the kremlin, everything can be solved by a Ukrainian counteroffensive. There is every reason to hope that the offensive actions of the Ukrainian army will be able to turn the tide of the war and completely transfer it to the territory of the russian federation.